What to expect when Memphis basketball visits East Carolina, plus a game prediction

This season has been quite the rollercoaster for Memphis basketball.

The Tigers started the 2023-24 campaign on perhaps the highest note the program has hit in more than a decade. They won 15 of their first 17 games, defeated seven power conference opponents in that span and rose up to No. 10 in the Associated Press (AP) Top 25 on Jan. 15.

But Memphis’ armor began cracking during that time. Jordan Brown mysteriously disappeared from the team on Dec. 8—though he returned in mid-January—Nae’Qwan Tomlin transferred in from Kansas State a couple weeks later and Caleb Mills’ season ended with a torn patella at Tulsa on Jan. 4.

Memphis’ magic eventually faded when it blew a 20-point lead to South Florida on Jan. 18, which spiraled into embarrassing road tilts at Tulane and UAB. That embarrassment turned into full-on shame once the Tigers suffered a Quad 4 loss against Rice inside FedExForum on Jan. 31, which dropped them out of the projected NCAA Tournament field.

Penny Hardaway’s team put a temporary bandage over its issues in wins over Wichita State, Temple and Tulane to start February. But North Texas and SMU ripped that clean off, sending the Tigers into further despair with 10 and 26-point defeats respectively. Hardaway laid into them after the latter performance, and even accused some players of quitting on the team.

This was apparently the spark Memphis needed, however, as it immediately rebounded with a 24-point routing of Charlotte last Wednesday. It then exacted vengeance on Florida Atlantic, which eliminated Memphis in last year’s Big Dance, with a 4-point win on Sunday.

The Tigers (20-8, 9-6 AAC) looked hopeless and bleak not too long ago, but their confidence is seemingly higher than ever now. Not even an alleged academic fraud investigation involving fifth-year senior Malcolm Dandridge, which will withhold him from competition until further notice, seems to distract them from their ultimate goal—getting back to March Madness, and maybe going further than that.

“You have to keep the enthusiasm up. They’re really buying into [the] scheme. And with the scheme, they’re bringing the energy and the effort,” Hardaway said Sunday. “When we do that, we can win any game. We didn’t do that [at North Texas and at SMU], and I don’t know why. But we’re doing it now, so I’m staying on that rhythm of where we are right now. So yeah, I feel like we can be back in the [NCAA Tournament] conversation.”

Next up for Memphis—still No. 6 in the American Athletic Conference (AAC)—is a trip to Williams Arena in Greenville, North Carolina to face East Carolina (14-13, 7-7 AAC) on Thursday (6 p.m., ESPN2). The Tigers have gone 25-5 in 30 meetups with ECU. But they’re just 9-4 on the road in that span, including a 72-71 loss at the buzzer in 2021-22.

A win positions them to move up to No. 5 in the league with a victory over UAB next Sunday if the Blazers lose to Wichita State on Wednesday. They need to be at least No. 4 in the standings by regular season’s end to earn a double-bye to the quarterfinals of next month’s AAC Tournament in Fort Worth, Texas.

Here’s what to expect when Memphis visits the Pirates.

The Tigers are seeing a spike in unity.

Hardaway was pleasantly surprised during his weekly radio show at Brookhaven Pub & Grill Monday night.

Of course he expected Nick Jourdain to be there, as he was the show’s special guest this week. But he didn’t expect many of Jourdain’s teammates to show up too. Tomlin, Mills, David Jones, Jahvon Quinerly, Jayhlon Young, Noah Stansbury and Jayden Hardaway were all on hand to mingle with fans and support their head coach, which Penny Hardaway thinks can only mean one thing.

“Everyone is just focused and locked in. You can just tell by them being here tonight that things are getting closer, and this is the right time for that to happen,” he said.

The Tigers’ newfound chemistry is showing on the court as well. They turned the ball over just six times against Florida Atlantic and finished the game with four double-digit scorers. Jones scored 25 points, Tomlin had 21, Quinerly compiled 14 and Jaykwon Walton notched 11.

“At some point after [the SMU game], it clicked for this team to be one unit instead of being individuals. And it feels good coaching this team now when everybody’s unified and together,” Hardaway said postgame.

Nae’Qwan Tomlin continues to rise.

Sunday afternoon was personal for Tomlin, who’s now averaging 11.9 points, 5.9 rebounds and 1.1 blocks per game.

He may be a first-year Tiger, but he still felt the FAU sting last season. He lost to the Owls in the Elite Eight as a member of Kansas State, so it was only fitting he had his best game as a Tiger on Sunday. The 6-foot-10 forward finished with 21 points, 8 rebounds (5 offensive), 3 steals and 2 blocks.

“Just going into this game, you wanna get that get-back for Memphis. But I also wanted to do it for my last year’s team with K-State. [FAU] beat us in the Elite Eight, and that feeling—that hurts. In that locker room, everybody’s crying,” Tomlin said postgame. “So I did it, not only for Memphis, but for [Kansas State] as well.”

Hardaway can’t help but be impressed by the mid-season transfer.

“This had to be weird for him to come here mid-season and then try to join us. He wasn’t in shape because he had an ankle injury, and [he’s been] trying to work himself in shape and work himself into the chemistry, which people don’t give us any kind of grace period for any of that,” he said Monday. “He’s in better shape now, and his rhythm is there now…He will have those fresh legs ready for the conference tournament.”

What East Carolina brings to the table

Mike Schwartz’s team hasn’t been overly impressive this season. The Pirates are currently ranked No. 173 in KenPom and No. 174 in the NCAA’s NET ranking. They also own three Quad 3 losses and three Quad 4 losses while not having any wins in Quads 1 and 2. ECU fell at Rice 70-52 last Saturday.

RJ Felton is the Pirates’ captain. The 6-foot-3 guard averages 16.5 points and 6.3 rebounds while shooting 41.8% from the field and 34.8% from 3-point range. He also nabs a team-high 1.9 steals per game defensively. Felton’s scored double-figure points in all but two outings this season.

Brandon Johnson is East Carolina’s biggest threat in the frontcourt. The 6-foot-8 forward puts up 13.7 points, 8.5 rebounds and 1.7 steals per contest. He also nails 41.3% of his field goal attempts and 35.2% of his 3-point tries. Johnson has recorded eight double-doubles this year.

Ezra Ausar is another high-octane scorer. The 6-foot-8 forward averages 12 points and 4.7 rebounds on 52.1% shooting. He’s on a bit of a cold stretch, however, having scored double-digit points just once in his last seven games. Ausar put up a season-high 25 points against SMU on Jan. 13.

Other players to watch for are 6-foot guard Bobby Pettiford Jr. (8 points and 3.5 assists per game), 6-foot-2 guard Cam Hayes (7.6 points per game) and 6-foot-5 guard Jaden Walker (5.4 points, 3.3 rebounds and 2.2 assists per game).

East Carolina scores 69.2 points per game and shoots 41.9% from the field and 31.2% from 3-point range. It also averages 35.1 rebounds and 12 assists while turning the ball over 10.4 times per contest. Defensively, Schwartz’s team racks up 13.1 forced turnovers, 8.1 steals and 2.7 blocks. It’s currently No. 40 in turnover margin and No. 68 in scoring defense. KenPom ranks the Pirates No. 224 in adjusted offensive efficiency and No. 147 in adjusted defensive efficiency.

The Prediction

Memphis scores its third consecutive win.

The Tigers are rolling right now, and the pesky Pirates don’t have the canons to stop Hardaway’s club in its current form. Memphis would likely have to revert to the team it was two weeks ago to lose this one.

Expect the U of M to take care of business in Greenville.