What to expect when Memphis basketball visits No. 16 Clemson, plus a game prediction

Memphis basketball washed away its Associated Press (AP) Top 25 ranking by losing to Arkansas State, but it can possibly take it right back this weekend.

The Tigers (7-2) visit No. 16 Clemson (9-1) inside Littlejohn Coliseum Saturday morning (10 a.m., ESPN2). This is the first of three Quad 1 opportunities for Memphis in its next four games—the other two being at home against No. 25 Mississippi State (Dec. 21) and No. 19 Ole Miss (Dec. 28). Penny Hardaway’s club additionally plays a Quad 2 game at Virginia next Wednesday.

Memphis won its initial meeting with Clemson in a 79-77 thriller at FedExForum last season. Saturday serves as the return contest for the schools’ home-and-home series.

This game is obviously a big chance for the Tigers, who have three Quad 1 wins, to bolster their NCAA Tournament resume even more. But it’s also the ultimate bounce-back opportunity from their Quad 3 tilt to A-State last Sunday, or even their clunky victory over Louisiana Tech on Dec. 4.

Hardaway—given these circumstances—has one central objective in mind heading in.

“We just go and fight like hell for 40 minutes,” he told reporters Thursday.

Here’s what to expect during Memphis’ first true road game in over a month.

Will Memphis improve its 3-point defense?

Memphis is shooting 3-pointers better than all but two teams this season, but it’s also among the worst perimeter defenses in college basketball—No. 318, to be exact.

The Tigers’ lackadaisical effort guarding the 3-point line reared its ugly head against Louisiana Tech and Arkansas State last week. LA Tech torched Memphis for a 57% clip from deep, while A-State finished its win over the Tigers at 33% after shooting 39% in the first half. Both teams combined for a 42.3% mark from beyond the arc.

“What’s happening is defensive assignments are being missed, not intentionally. It’s just the guys and the rotations. Sometimes, they get confused. They have to detox everything from their old schools,” Hardaway said. “Sometimes, a guy will be late in the rotation. Sometimes, a guy will just be falling asleep. Sometimes, a guy will be too low when he’s supposed to be further out…They have to talk about basketball more to understand this is a new system, new coach and this is what we have to do.”

Clemson currently shoots 38.2% on 3-pointers, which is No. 38 in the country. So, Memphis must tighten up defensively to escape Littlejohn with a victory.

“We don’t wanna just face guard a kid and go, ‘Stand here,’ because we have a defensive structure. But guys just have to understand personnel. We beg them, ‘Hey, shooter or non-shooter? Which one are you gonna stay closer to?,'” Hardaway said. “Last year’s team really never got it. Hopefully, this year’s team understands more because we’ve seen how the 3-point line has really hurt us.”

Can Memphis match Clemson on the boards?

Memphis has been outrebounded in five of its last six games, including last Sunday’s loss to Arkansas State.

The Red Wolves edged the Tigers on the glass 44-40 while collecting 16 offensive rebounds and 17 second-chance points. No. 2 Auburn also won the rebounding battle 32-26 during its victory over Memphis in last month’s Maui Invitational championship, where forward Johni Broome demolished the Tigers for 21 points, 16 rebounds (4 offensive), 6 assists and 4 blocks.

Clemson nabs 12.5 offensive boards per game, whereas Memphis ranks No. 246 in total rebounding. The Tigers, who’ve been outrebounded in three of their seven wins too, need to challenge Clemson’s physicality to have a chance Saturday. Dain Dainja averaged 8.3 rebounds in Memphis’ last three outings, though, so he should provide some major help in that endeavor.

“That’s what Clemson is all about—physicality and rebounding. You have to shore those things up,” Hardaway said. “If you don’t, they’re gonna beat you bad.”

What Clemson brings to the table

Brad Brownell’s team has won six straight games following an early-season misstep at Boise State last month.

Clemson owns three Quad 1 victories over No. 5 Kentucky, Penn State and San Francisco. It’s currently No. 14 in the NCAA’s NET rankings, No. 20 in KenPom and No. 30 in Bart Torvik. KenPom also taps Clemson at No. 40 in adjusted offensive efficiency and No. 7 in adjusted defensive efficiency.

Ian Schieffelin is now Clemson’s top frontcourt player after PJ Hall’s departure this offseason. The 6-foot-8 forward averages 12.6 points, 12.6 rebounds and 3.5 assists on 41.8% shooting. Schieffelin has grabbed 13 rebounds or more in his last five games, including a 20-board showing against Kentucky on Dec. 3. He finished with 11 points, 11 rebounds and 6 assists during last year’s meeting with Memphis.

Sixth-year guard Chase Hunter is Clemson’s leading scorer. The 6-foot-4 senior puts up 15.9 points, 2.9 rebounds, 2.3 assists and 1.5 steals per game while shooting 47% from the field and 38.9% from 3-point range. Hunter dropped a season-high 30 points on Boise State, and concluded last year’s game against Memphis with 13.

Memphis fans might be familiar with Cincinnati transfer Viktor Lakhin. The 6-foot-11 center averages 11 points, 5.4 rebounds, 1.7 blocks and a steal on 50.6% shooting. Lakhin also hits 35.3% on 3-pointers, though that comes from less than 2 attempts per contest. He gave Memphis lots of fits in 2022-23, when he averaged 15 points and 9.5 rebounds in two matchups with the Tigers.

Other players to watch for are 6-foot-10 forward Chauncey Wiggins (9.5 points, 3 rebounds, 42.9% on 3-pointers), 6-foot-1 guard Jaeden Zackery (8.5 points and 2.1 steals) and 6-foot-3 guard Dillon Hunter (6.1 points on 41.7% 3-point shooting).

The Prediction

Clemson protects home court with a win.

This one can honestly go either way. The likes of PJ Haggerty and Tyrese Hunter lifting Memphis to victory—even after falling to Arkansas State—wouldn’t be shocking in the slightest. But Clemson’s superior frontcourt play and momentum are likely critical down the stretch.

Expect a finish similar to last season, regardless.