What to expect when No. 10 Memphis hosts South Florida, plus a game prediction

The Tigers are a top-10 team for the first time since November 2021.

AP Top 25 voters slotted Memphis basketball at No. 10 in Monday’s rankings after Penny Hardaway’s team throttled Wichita State 112-86 Sunday. Memphis is also ranked No. 7 in the CBS Sports Top 25 and 1, No. 7 in CBS Sports’ Jon Rothstein’s top 45 and No. 6 in NCAA Correspondent Andy Katz’s Power 36. Computers, however, are still lower on the Tigers. KenPom currently has them at No. 44, and the NCAA NET rankings have them at No. 40. Bracketologists Jerry Palm (CBS) and Joe Lunardi (ESPN) currently project Memphis as a No. 3 and 4 seed respectively in the 2024 NCAA Tournament.

Next up for the Tigers (15-2, 4-0 AAC) is a mid-week showdown against South Florida (9-5, 2-1 AAC) inside FedExForum Thursday (6 p.m., ESPN). Memphis leads the all-time series with the Bulls 32-7, including five consecutive victories. Hardaway owns a 6-2 record versus USF throughout his six-year tenure with the U of M. The Tigers are a 12.5-point favorite to win their 11th straight contest.

Here’s what to expect in Memphis’ lone matchup with South Florida this season.

Jaykwon Walton looks to be reformed.

Walton, who shot 40% from 3-point range last season, once had a stretch this year where he made just one 3-pointer in seven games. But that now seems like a distant memory.

The deep-ball specialist has shot at least 50% from the field in his last four games, which culminated with a masterclass Sunday afternoon. The Wichita State transfer had his best game of the season against his former team, even after being booed by the Shocker faithful pre-game.

Walton scored Memphis’ first five points on back-to-back possessions, and he only got better from there. The 22-year-old senior made basket after basket throughout the 40-minute contest while making a few timely plays on defense as well. Wichita State simply had no answers for Walton, who finished the game with 23 points, 3 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 blocks and 2 steals while shooting 8-of-12 from the field and 6-of-8 from 3-point range.

“Jaykwon has been paying his dues all year,” Hardaway said Sunday. “He’s kinda sacrificed to be one of the guys, and I know he wanted to have a great game here.”

Memphis wing Jaykwon Walton (@WaltonJaykwon) balled OUT for Memphis in their dominant win over Wichita State.

23 PTS
6-8 3PT
8-12 FG
3 REB
3 AST

Walton bounced back in a big way against his former team.@BluffCity_Media | #GTG🐅 pic.twitter.com/40845toR2O

— Hitmen Hoops Media (@HitmenHoops) January 14, 2024

Nae’Qwan Tomlin has been in foul trouble—a lot.

Tomlin has played well for Memphis since transferring in from Kansas State earlier this season.

The 6-foot-11 forward is averaging 10.8 points and 5.7 rebounds while shooting 51.1% from the field and 41.7% from 3-point range after his first six games in a Tigers uniform. But he’s putting up those numbers despite playing just 20 minutes per game.

Sure, Tomlin probably still needs a bit of time to fully integrate into Memphis’ system, but that isn’t the main culprit for why he isn’t playing more. That would be his incessant foul trouble. Tomlin has committed at least three personal fouls in four of his first six games, and at least four fouls in his last three games. He’s also fouled out twice in two of his last three contests against SMU and UTSA. He picked up four fouls in just 22 minutes against Wichita State Sunday.

Tomlin is someone Memphis will only rely more on as the season windles down, so it’s imperative he stays available in games if the Tigers want to reach their highest ceiling. Him constantly missing time due to foul trouble is not a recipe for success.

What South Florida brings to the table

The Bulls have won seven out of their last eight games under first-year head coach Amir Abdur-Rahim, including 16-point win over Florida State on a neutral court. USF is No. 141 in KenPom and No. 144 in the NET. South Florida owns a Quad 2 win, but it also owns two Quad 4 losses. Memphis is its first Quad 1 opportunity of the season.

Chris Youngblood is one of USF’s feature guards. The 6-foot-4 senior averages 14.9 points, 2.5 rebounds and 2.1 assists while shooting 40.8% from the field and 33.3% from 3-point range. Youngblood has scored at least 11 points in his last eight games.

Selton Miguel is perhaps the Bulls’ most dangerous, all-around player. The 6-foot-4 guard puts up 14.6 points and 4.1 rebounds per game, and shoots 43.2% on his field goal attempts and an absurd 47.1% on his 3-point attempts. The Angola native also averages 1.2 steals per contest. He’s shot at least 50% from beyond the arc in six of his last eight games, including his last two.

Other players to watch out for are 6-foot-10 forward Kasean Pryor (10.5 points, 6.5 rebounds, 1.2 blocks and 1.5 steals per game), 6-foot-5 guard Kobe Knox (8.6 points and 3.5 rebounds per game), 5-foot-10 guard Jayden Reid (8.3 points, 4.2 assists and 1.4 steals per game—48.1% from 3-point range) and 6-foot-6 forward Sam Hines Jr. (6.6 points and 4.6 rebounds per game).

The Bulls score 76 points per game while shooting 43% from the field and 33.1% from 3-point range. They also average 36.8 rebounds and 14.6 assists, but turn the ball over 10.6 times per contest. Defensively, USF racks up 14.6 forced turnovers, 7.4 steals and 3.6 blocks. Abdur-Rahim’s club is ranked No. 189 in adjusted offensive efficiency and No. 119 in adjusted defensive efficiency.

The Prediction

Memphis overpowers South Florida to victory.

The Bulls are a feisty, well-coached squad and could give the Tigers a bigger challenge than advertised. But Memphis should still find itself rolling towards the end of this one. It has no business losing Thursday night, especially after the way it played against Wichita State.

Expect Hardaway’s team to keep chugging along.