What to expect when No. 13 Memphis hosts UTSA, plus a game prediction

Memphis basketball had yet another productive start to its week Monday.

The Tigers shot up two spots to No. 13 in the latest AP Top 25 poll. They’re also ranked No. 6 in the CBS Sports Top 25 and 1, No. 7 in NCAA correspondent Andy Katz’s Power 36 and No. 8 in CBS Sports’ Jon Rothstein’s top 45. The computers, however, are still much lower on Memphis as KenPom and the NCAA NET rankings slot it at No. 44 and No. 48 respectively—the NET ranking being five spots below No. 43 SMU, which Memphis beat 62-59 on Sunday. Bracketologists Jerry Palm (CBS) and Joe Lunardi (ESPN) project Penny Hardaway’s club as a No. 3 and 5 seed in the 2024 NCAA Tournament.

Memphis (13-2) looks to keep proving the AP voters right and the computers wrong when it hosts UTSA (7-8) in its third AAC game of the season Wednesday (7 p.m., ESPN+). This is the Tigers’ first matchup against the Roadrunners since Dec. 20, 1993, when the former beat the latter 78-72. The U of M is a 19.5-point favorite heading into its 16th game of the season.

Here’s what to expect in Memphis’ first meeting with UTSA as conference foes.

Will Jayhlon Young see more minutes?

When Caleb Mills suffered a season-ending fractured patella last Thursday at Tulsa, he left a sizeable hole in Memphis’ rotation.

Truth be told, it’ll take more than one guy to fill it. Many have brought up the likes of Jayden Hardaway, his younger brother Ashton Hardaway, Carl Cherenfant and even Jonathan Pierre as possible candidates for an increased role. But what about UCF transfer Jayhlon Young?

The 6-foot-2 junior is already an important piece as the backup point guard to Jahvon Quinerly, yet he doesn’t get as much playing time as one may think. Young currently averages 3.6 points, 2 rebounds, 1 assist and 13 minutes per game, which is down from his 19-minute average with the Knights last season.

Does he have his struggles with creating offense for both himself and others? Sure, but he also has a knack for making timely plays and is one of the team’s best defenders (1.3 steals per game).

He made one of his largest impacts of the season late in the first half against SMU. The Tigers were in the middle of a disastrous opening period, and trailed the Mustangs 30-15 with 5:04 remaining until halftime before Young gave Memphis a much-needed spark. He first made a fastbreak layup off a Nick Jourdain steal, then assisted Jaykwon Walton for the latter’s first 3-pointer of the game and concluded the 7-0 run by converting another bucket at the rim, cutting SMU’s lead to 30-22 with 1:45 left until the break.

Young finished the game with 6 points, 3 rebounds and 2 assists while shooting 3-of-3 from the field, but still played just 13 minutes. Penny Hardaway told reporters afterwards that he doesn’t need to make that same mistake again.

“Jayhlon really deserves more minutes,” Hardaway said. “I gotta find a way to get Jayhlon back out on the court more. When he and [Jahvon Quinerly] are out there [together], they’re actually playing really well. That’s all on me. He definitely deserves more minutes. He makes winning plays when he’s out there.”

What UTSA brings to the table

The Roadrunners—at least on paper—are arguably the weakest opponent Memphis has seen thus far. Eighth-year coach Steve Henson’s team already owns six Quad 4 losses, and is ranked No. 285 in both the NET and KenPom. UTSA (1-1 in AAC play) comes off an 89-82 overtime win at Rice, but has lost four of its last six games.

Jordan Ivy-Curry became UTSA’s leading scorer in just five outings after making his season debut on Dec. 17. The 6-foot-3 guard averages 14 points, 5.6 rebounds and 4.8 assists per game while shooting 38.6% from the field. Ivy-Curry spent his first two collegiate seasons with the Roadrunners before transferring to Pacific for the 2022-23 season, but he’s now back in San Antonio.

Christian Tucker is the Roadrunners’ other top scoring option. The 6-foot-3 guard puts up 13.2 points, 5.3 assists (best in AAC) and 3.2 rebounds per game while making 45.8% of his field goal attempts and shooting 41.3% from the 3-point line. Tucker, a junior from Chandler, Arizona, is in his third season with UTSA and leads the AAC in total assists with 79.

Other players to watch for are 6-foot-6 guard Dre Fuller Jr. (11.4 points and 6 rebounds per game), 7-foot center Carlton Linguard Jr. (10.8 points, 6.1 rebounds and 2 blocks per game), 6-foot-4 guard Isiah Wyatt (9.6 points and 4.3 rebounds per game, 40.8% from 3-point range), 6-foot guard Adante’ Holiman (9.2 points per game), 6-foot-10 forward Trey Edmonds (7.9 points and 6.1 rebounds per game) and 6-foot-5 guard PJ Carter (7.8 points per game).

UTSA scores 79 points per game while shooting 42% from the field and 35.3% from 3-point range. It also averages 14.5 assists, 40.1 total rebounds and 12 turnovers. Defensively, the Roadrunners force 10.5 turnovers per contest while collecting an average of 5.5 steals and 5 blocks. Henson’s club ranks No. 201 in adjusted offensive efficiency and No. 331 in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom.

The Prediction

Memphis handles UTSA with ease.

The Tigers are a heavy favorite in this one for a reason, and seem due for a dominant outing after an iffy four-game stretch. If Memphis’ biggest issue isn’t covering the large spread, something will have likely gone wrong.

Expect Hardaway’s team to empty its bench Wednesday night.