What to expect when No. 13 Memphis visits Wichita State, plus a game prediction

Memphis basketball has teetered on the edge of embarrassment lately.

It would’ve lost to Vanderbilt had Ezra Manjon made a 3-point buzzer beater, went neck-and-neck with Austin Peay for nearly 30 minutes, needed Jahvon Quinerly to hit game-winning 3-pointers against both Tulsa and SMU and gave up 101 points to lowly UTSA in an overtime affair Wednesday. The good news, however, is the Tigers didn’t lose any of those games.

In fact, No. 13 Memphis (14-2, 3-0 AAC) hasn’t lost at all since Dec. 2 at Ole Miss. But it’s undeniable Penny Hardaway’s team isn’t playing at its best right now, especially when facing lower-quality opponents.

“The team definitely has to take ownership. It’s on them,” Hardaway said Wednesday. “They’re well coached. They’re prepared. They know what’s going on.”

The Tigers likely won’t be able to get away with a subpar effort Sunday at Wichita State (12 p.m., ESPN2). The Shockers (8-7, 0-2 AAC) aren’t at their best right now after losing their last four games, but that only gives them all the more reason to throw everything they have towards Memphis. Hardaway owns an 8-1 record against Wichita State during his tenure with Memphis, including a 3-1 mark at Charles Koch Arena. His team is a 4.5-point favorite for Sunday’s contest.

Here’s what to expect in the Tigers’ second AAC road test this season.

Jaykwon Walton returns to Wichita.

Walton spent last season at Wichita State, and was the Shockers’ leading scorer.

The 6-foot-7 wing averaged 13.9 points, 5.3 rebounds and 1.9 assists per game while shooting 53.5% from the field and 40% from 3-point range. He scored 15 and 14 points respectively in Wichita’s two losses to Memphis last season. The Shockers finished the campaign 17-15 (9-9 AAC), and fired head coach Issac Brown.

Walton, meanwhile, entered the transfer portal and signed with both Alabama and UCF before ending up at Memphis in late July. The 22-year-old senior has taken a step back statistically this season (9 points and 3.9 rebounds per game), but is still a critical piece for the Tigers with 13 starts and a career-high average in steals (1.3).

The former Shocker scored 13 points on 5-of-7 shooting against UTSA Wednesday night, and later provided reporters with some insight regarding the road environment at Wichita State.

“If we have a slow start in Wichita and we let their crowd get involved, it’s gonna be tough,” he said. “It ain’t gonna be no Tulsa crowd. It ain’t gonna be no small crowd. They feed off the energy of the crowd…We can’t start like that against them or it’ll be rough.”

Memphis’ defense must bounce back.

Memphis, which KenPom ranks No. 44 in adjusted defensive efficiency, couldn’t buy a stop in its last outing. The Tigers allowed 101 points against UTSA after not giving up more than 80 points in all prior games this season.

Hardaway’s team particularly struggled to guard the 3-point line. The Roadrunners scorched the Tigers from beyond the arc for the whole night, finishing the game with a 38% clip. UTSA, which made 17 total 3-pointers, shot 50% from deep in the second half.

Jordan Ivy-Curry might as well have been another guy with the last name Curry, as he led all scorers with 28 points, 9 rebounds and 5 assists while shooting 9-of-21 from the field and 6-of-14 from 3-point range. Chandler Cuthrell, PJ Carter, Carlton Linguard Jr. and Dre Fuller Jr. each made at least two perimeter shots. The Roadrunners continuously broke the Tigers’ zone and press defenses, and simply took advantage of Memphis’ lackadaisical effort to nearly score the upset win.

“We talked about this earlier when we first got this roster together. From one through 15, it pretty much is all offensive players—offensive mindset,” Hardaway said. “Now we gotta figure out ways for these guys who got the ball on their team last year to do something else outside of scoring. If you’re not scoring, what else are you gonna bring to the table? Everyone has to guard their yard, and we’re not doing that. We’re not guarding the ball well at all…That’s just not a Memphis team, man. We don’t play like that, so I’m telling these guys ‘we have to get better.’”

Luckily, Memphis still beat UTSA because it got to free throw line 43 times and took advantage of the Roadrunners’ putrid defense (No. 326 in adjusted defensive efficiency). Wichita State is ranked No. 90 in that same category, so the Tigers probably can’t outscore a poor defensive effort this time around.

What Wichita State brings to the table

Paul Mills’ team hasn’t been great in his first season with the program. The Shockers are ranked No. 135 in KenPom and No. 127 in the NCAA NET rankings. Wichita State, which is on a four-game losing streak, is 0-5 against Quad 1 and 2 opponents and 4-2 against Quad 3 opponents. Memphis (No. 51 in the NET) is a Quad 2 opportunity for the Shockers.

Colby Rogers is Wichita State’s leading scorer. The Sienna transfer averages 15.9 points, 3.7 rebounds and 2 assists while shooting 40.4% from the field and 38.5% from 3-point range. The 6-foot-4 guard also racks up 1.4 steals per contest. He compiled 18 points, 2 blocks and 3 steals in a loss to North Texas on Jan. 4.

Xavier Bell is in his second season with the Shockers. The 6-foot-2 guard averages 13.1 points, 3.1 rebounds and 2.8 assists. He also shoots 43.5% on his field goal attempts and 33.3% from the 3-point line. The Drexel transfer scored 2 combined points in Wichita State’s two losses to Memphis last season, but he has a much more prominent role this year (14.6 minutes per game in 2022-23 to 31.3 minutes per game in 2023-24).

Kenny Pohto is another returning Shocker. The 6-foot-11 forward is having his best season yet with 11.3 points and 7.4 rebounds per game while shooting 44.9% from the field. He was productive in two matchups against Memphis last season—9 points, 4 rebounds and 3 steals in the first game and 8 points, 4 rebounds and 2 steals in the second game.

Other players to watch for are 6-foot-5 guard Harlond Beverly (9.4 points, 5 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 1.4 steals per game), 6-foot-6 forward Dalen Ridgnal (7.6 points and 7.8 rebounds per game) and 6-foot-11 center Quincy Ballard (7.5 points, 6.4 rebounds and 2.3 blocks per game).

Wichita State scores 74 points per game while shooting 43.4% from the field and 30.6% from 3-point range. The Shockers also average 42.7 rebounds and 11.8 assists while turning the ball over 12.2 times per contest. Defensively, they put up 10.3 forced turnovers, 6.2 steals and 4.7 blocks. Mills’ club is ranked No. 206 in offensive efficiency.

The Prediction

Memphis escapes Wichita with another close win.

The Shockers will bring their A-game against the Tigers. There’s little evidence to suggest otherwise. But given the raucous environment, Memphis should play with more energy and respond positively to Wichita State’s intensity. The Tigers own road victories over the likes of Texas A&M, VCU and Missouri, so they’re perfectly capable of winning in challenging venues like Charles Koch Arena.

Expect Memphis to continue Hardaway’s success against the Shockers.