What to expect when No. 16 Memphis hosts Arkansas State, plus a game prediction

Memphis basketball is set for another sneaky test this weekend.

The No. 16 Tigers (7-1) host Arkansas State (6-3) at FedExForum Sunday afternoon (3 p.m., ESPNU). The Red Wolves—picked to win the Sun Belt in October—are the fourth preseason conference champion Memphis will face this year.

Penny Hardaway’s club already owns wins over No. 25 UConn (Big East), Ohio (MAC) and Louisiana Tech (Conference USA).

The latter game against Talvin Hester’s Bulldogs on Wednesday was a bit too close for comfort. The Tigers prevailed 81-71 after trailing by a point at halftime and surrendering an 11-point advantage in the second half.

Arkansas State certainly qualifies as another possible trap game for Memphis, which has beaten four top-62 KenPom opponents (UConn, Michigan State, San Francisco and Missouri). The Tigers are 13-4 against the Red Wolves since 1979.

”It’s the task of human nature. When you win a game like UConn, you get 100 text messages. You beat Michigan State, you get another 100 text messages,” Hardaway said Wednesday. “You start reading that, you forget that you still have to go play. That’s the task with a new team…They think we can just do heroics every single night and just pull a win out. It just doesn’t work that way.”

Here’s what to expect in Memphis’ first meeting with A-State since 2020.

Does Memphis have the nation’s top backcourt?

Memphis’ three-headed monster of a backcourt is undoubtedly its premier attraction.

PJ Haggerty (22.2 points per game), Tyrese Hunter (16.6 points) and Colby Rogers (12.6 points) are the primary engines for a Tigers offense ranked No. 22 in adjusted efficiency by KenPom.

Haggerty and Hunter particularly turned heads during last month’s Maui Invitational, where they were both named to the All-Tournament team. Both have also won the American Athletic Conference (AAC) Player of the Week award once this year.

Hunter averaged 20 points on 58.3% 3-point shooting in Maui, and Haggerty notched 21.6 points, 7 rebounds and 3.3 assists per contest. The duo led the Tigers with 20 and 23 points respectively against Louisiana Tech.

Rogers, meanwhile, is always there when the Tigers need him. He scored 8 of Memphis’ 17 overtime points in its 99-97 win over UConn after Haggerty fouled out late in regulation. He dropped 15 points in the Tigers’ loss to No. 1 Auburn in the Maui Invitational final with Hunter having a rough 4-of-10 outing from the field. He then chipped in 13 against Louisiana Tech, including a 3-point dagger that gave Memphis a 10-point cushion with 55 ticks remaining.

So, it’s easy to see why Hardaway thinks all three—and he emphasized all three—comprise the best backcourt in college basketball.

”I would be willing to call [them] that. That’s just my confidence in the guys that I have,” he said. “They should stay humble, but I can say—just being a guard, just watching guards every night—that they can arguably be that.”

Hardaway wants to see positive 3-point shooting trends—on both ends of the floor.

Memphis remains the nation’s top 3-point shooting team at 45.5%, even after it shot 35% overall and 1-for-9 in the first half Wednesday night.

Hunter and forward Nick Jourdain are drilling 50% from the perimeter. Rogers boasts a 45% clip, and Haggerty nails 43.2% of his 3-point tries.

The Tigers do have a little issue, though. They aren’t taking enough of them.

Memphis only launches 18.1 3-pointers per game, which is good for No. 336 in the country. Hardaway says he aspires for a much higher mark there.

”We’re trying to build up to that, because we wanna run. That takes the giving the ball up in transition, and not dribbling up,” he said. “We want those transition 3s. We wanna get to 30 [attempts per game].”

Memphis’ 3-point defense needs to turn the tide too.

The Tigers are allowing their opponents to shoot 37.1% from beyond the arc this season, which ranks No. 326 in college basketball. Louisiana Tech garnered a 62% first-half clip, and shot 57% overall against Hardaway’s team.

Arkansas State also has nation’s 35th-best perimeter defense, holding its foes to a 27.8% mark in nine games. So, Memphis could struggle making up for potential defensive miscues against the Red Wolves.

”We’re not far off in all areas. We just have to commit to the pick-and-roll and guarding our yard,” Hardaway said. “We’re really close to being one of the best, top 5 defenses in the country.”

What Arkansas State brings to the table

A-State is led by second-year coach Bryan Hodgson, who guided the school to 20 wins and a CBI appearance last season.

The Red Wolves are currently No. 114 in Bart Torvik, No. 129 in KenPom and No. 172 in the NCAA’s NET rankings. KenPom also ranks them No. 186 in adjusted offensive efficiency and No. 101 in adjusted defensive efficiency. Hodgson’s team doesn’t own a single win in Quads 1 or 2, though it lost at No. 10 Alabama by just 9 points on Nov. 8.

Taryn Todd is Arkansas State’s primary threat. The 6-foot-4 guard averages 13.2 points, 4.8 rebounds, 2.9 assists and 1.2 steals while shooting 38.7% from the field and 36.1% from 3-point range. Todd, who’s had stints with TCU and New Mexico, recorded 18 points, 6 rebounds, 3 assists, 3 steals and 2 blocks against Alabama.

Louisiana transfer Kobe Julien headlines the Red Wolves’ frontcourt. The 6-foot-6 forward puts up 12.4 points, 5.3 rebounds and 1.3 steals per game on 37.9% shooting. He also stood out against the Crimson Tide last month with 20 points, 6 rebounds, 3 assists and a block.

Other players to watch for are 6-foot-3 guard Derrian Ford (10.2 points and 3.8 rebounds), 6-foot-1 guard Terrence Ford Jr. (8.4 points, 3.1 rebounds and 3.1 assists) and 6-foot-8 forward Rashaud Marshall (4.7 points, 7 rebounds and 1.1 blocks).

The Prediction

Memphis wins comfortably, but gets challenged again.

Arkansas State already proved itself capable of hanging with top-25 teams on the road with its performance against Alabama. Plus, Memphis’ 3-point offense got somewhat stifled by Louisiana Tech’s solid perimeter defense, and A-State presents an even bigger hurdle in that department.

Expect a scrappy battle where the Tigers pull away late.