What to expect when No. 18 Memphis visits Charlotte, plus a game prediction

Things feel a bit too familiar right now.

Last year’s Memphis basketball team started 15-2 and climbed up to No. 10 in the Associated Press (AP) Top 25. Much of the Tigers’ hot start, however, saw them squeak past inferior competition like Vanderbilt, Austin Peay, Tulsa and UTSA. South Florida finally conquered Memphis on Jan. 18, 2024, which began a 7-8 spiral in the Tigers’ last 15 games that ended with them missing the NCAA Tournament.

This year’s squad (13-4, 3-1 AAC) has piled up a staggering nine wins in Quads 1 and 2. That tally is largely why Memphis is No. 18 in the AP poll, but faulty escapes from Louisiana Tech, North Texas and East Carolina and a home loss to Arkansas State left some fans and critics skeptical before Thursday night at Temple. Their fingers are perhaps inches away from the panic button now, since the Tigers fell to the Owls 88-81.

Temple currently ranks No. 107 in the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET), so Memphis took a Quad 2 loss that’s relatively inconsequential to its NCAA Tournament resume. Another potential slip-up at Charlotte (7-11, 0-5 AAC), though, is much scarier.

The 49ers (No. 278 in the NET) represent a Quad 4 opportunity for Penny Hardaway’s program. They’re also the first of 11 consecutive Quad 3 or 4 opponents on Memphis’ schedule.

The Tigers must now do what their 2023-24 counterparts couldn’t—avoid enough landmines throughout American Athletic Conference (AAC) play to keep their March Madness dreams intact. Hardaway sees the parallels as well as anyone, but he’s still confident this season’s Temple won’t become last season’s South Florida.

“No worry yet,” he said. “I’m not going [to go] backwards and start talking about last year. I’m not gonna panic. God is still in control. We’re still in control of our own destiny.”

Here’s what to expect when Memphis visits Charlotte on Sunday (2 p.m., ESPN2).

Rebounding, rebounding and more rebounding

Temple systematically controlled the glass with 49 rebounds compared to Memphis’ 25 on Thursday. The Owls also scored 19 second-chance points off 22 offensive boards—nearly matching the Tigers’ total rebounding on the offensive glass alone.

Memphis big men Dain Dainja (5), Moussa Cisse (3) and Nick Jourdain (3) combined for 11 rebounds. PJ Haggerty led the Tigers’ backcourt with 4 boards, whereas Tyrese Hunter grabbed 2 and Colby Rogers didn’t secure any.

Meanwhile, Temple guard Shane Dezonie snagged a game-high 13 rebounds (8 offensive). Owls leading scorer Jamal Mashburn Jr. had 5 boards, as did freshman Aiden Tobiason. Quante Berry and Zion Stanford grabbed 3 rebounds each.

Hardaway, whose team’s been outrebounded in three straight outings, clearly needs better activity on the glass from his frontcourt. But the Owls’ backcourt taught him that his guards need to do more dirty work too.

“The guards are the biggest part of the rebounding, because the guards on [the other] team are rebounding. Those are the ones that are crashing, because they feel like our guards aren’t gonna box out,” Hardaway said. “We’re showing these guys after games, ‘Hey, you’re not boxing out. You need to start boxing out [or] this is gonna be a problem.’ Now, you give up that many offensive rebounds to Temple—a team that doesn’t have as much talent as you, but just out-toughed you to beat you.

“That’s very disheartening. It doesn’t make sense to me at all.”

Rogers is slumping. Again.

Rogers’ 28-point showing against Ole Miss last month ended a stretch where he shot a combined 1-for-19 vs. Virginia and Mississippi State, but his struggles have resurfaced over the last two weeks.

The 6-foot-3 guard shot a combined 28% from the field and 27.7% from 3-point range in Memphis’ last three games (vs. UNT, vs. ECU and at Temple). He didn’t score more than 9 points in any of those contests.

Rogers’ biggest issue is seemingly his over-reliance on 3-pointers. He’s currently shooting 5.9 of those per game—more than half of his 10.3 field-goal tries. He’s also averaging 1.7 free throws attempts, and has hoisted more than 2 foul shots just three times this season.

Rogers might benefit from taking a page out of his superstar teammate’s playbook. Haggerty (22.3 points per game, No. 3 in Division I) averages 9.2 free throws with an 82.2% clip and 3.2 perimeter shots with a 40.7% hit-rate.

What Charlotte brings to the table

Aaron Fearne’s team—losers of six in a row—is having an objectively putrid season.

Charlotte is 1-6 against Quad 3 opponents and 5-3 vs. Quad 4 schools with no victories in Quads 1 and 2. The 49ers rank No. 252 in KenPom and No. 269 in Bart Torvik. KenPom also slots them at No. 208 in adjusted offensive efficiency and No. 279 in adjusted defensive efficiency.

Nik Graves is Charlotte’s biggest threat. The 6-foot-3 guard averages 16.6 points, 4.4 rebounds, 3 assists and a steal on 40.7% shooting. Graves scored a season-high 31 points in a double-overtime win over Murray State on Dec. 24. He also recorded a 23-point, 11-rebound double-double against Rice on Jan. 4.

Florida Atlantic transfer Giancarlo Rosado is Charlotte’s best frontcourt player. The 6-foot-8 forward puts up 11.8 points, 6 rebounds and 2.7 assists per game on 50% shooting. Rosado compiled 14 points and 4 rebounds against his old team on Jan. 8.

Other players to watch for are 6-foot-7 forward Robert Braswell IV (11.6 points and 2.4 rebounds), 6-foot-3 guard Jaehshon Thomas (10.1 points and 3.9 rebounds) and 6-foot-7 forward Rich Rolf (5.5 points and 3.4 rebounds).

The Prediction

Memphis obliterates Charlotte.

The Tigers are coming off a not-so-promising stretch of games, but the 49ers are a whole new level of bad Memphis hasn’t seen this year. This one has no business being within 15 points.

Expect Hardaway’s club to handle business.