What to expect when No. 19 Memphis rekindles its rivalry with UAB, plus a game prediction

Memphis basketball—after playing with fire for a month—got set aflame last week.

The Tigers (15-4, 4-2 AAC) escaped the likes of Vanderbilt, Austin Peay, Tulsa and UTSA. But they finally ran out of gas against South Florida and Tulane. Having lost back-to-back games, Penny Hardaway’s team now owns Quad 2 and 3 losses and is a projected No. 7 seed in the 2024 NCAA Tournament by bracketologists Joe Lunardi (ESPN) and Jerry Palm (CBS). Both experts had No. 19 Memphis as a top-5 seed before last week.

Its computer numbers are also going in the wrong direction. KenPom currently ranks the Tigers No. 53, and the NCAA NET rankings place them at No. 58. But the good news for Memphis is it has a chance to rectify its recent shortcomings throughout the next two months, just like it did in 2022 and 2023.

The Tigers are 19-4 in regular season games after Jan. 21 over the past two seasons, so odds are seemingly in their favor. They’ll have to get past lots of landmines in a weaker AAC, however, including eight Quad 3 and 4 games to finish their conference schedule.

The first one will be Sunday at UAB (12-7, 4-2 AAC), a program Memphis is very familiar with. The Tigers and Blazers have historically shared a longstanding feud, with the former leading the all-time series 39-11. But they haven’t faced off in a conference game since 2012-13, when both schools were members of Conference USA. Memphis enters the matinee as a 4.5-point favorite.

Here’s what to expect when the Tigers and Blazers renew their rivalry in Birmingham.

Memphis hopes to improve its defense.

There are multiple culprits for Memphis’ recent hardships, but perhaps the biggest one is its defense. KenPom currently ranks the Tigers No. 73 in adjusted defensive efficiency, which would be the lowest mark in Hardaway’s tenure if the season ended today. They were No. 1 in the metric in 2021 and No. 5 in 2020 under the sixth-year coach.

Times have certainly changed, however. The Tigers are flat-out struggling to guard teams right now, especially from behind the 3-point line. Opponents have shot 40.3% from beyond the arc in their last four games. Memphis has also allowed at least 74 points in each contest during that span. But Hardaway hopes its defense can start improving Sunday.

“When we played the non-conference, I just don’t remember this poor decision making defensively, this overhelping, this leaving 3-point shooters [open] just nonchalantly. I just don’t remember any of it,” he said Thursday. “Since conference has started, we’ve fallen off a huge part defensively and what we really believe in and what we do. So I think this week was needed for us to get back to where we need to be.”

Some of the “poor decision making” Hardaway refers to came in the Tigers’ visit to Tulane last Sunday. Memphis led the Green Wave 75-74 with 2:22 left in the second half. But David Jones, the Tigers’ leading scorer, left Tulane’s Sion James wide-open for a 3-pointer after gambling for an inbound pass steal. The Tigers never led again for the rest of the game, and Jones missed a 3-point dagger at the buzzer.

“I like to get steals. I like to gamble, which Penny has been talking to me about—that I gotta start doing a better job with just staying solid on defense,” Jones said. “Sometimes, [Hardaway] will put a gameplan together and then we just kinda go out there and do things on our own…I’m definitely gonna take more pride on the defensive side now.”

Hardaway has a simple method for fixing the Tigers’ defense—more practice, of course.

“I’ve given them the first three months off really, honestly just being fair, to just being healthy and letting guys miss practices because of little knickknack injuries. [We] just really didn’t practice like I usually do…It’s gonna be a good week,” He said during his weekly radio show Monday. “I think now after [the Tulane loss], they understand how real it is—the guys who didn’t respect our conference. They’re upset. We’re just gonna see how upset this week.”

Hardaway says everyone is good to go.

The sixth-year coach provided some injury updates during Thursday’s meeting with reporters. Jaykwon Walton, Nick Jourdain and Nae’Qwan Tomlin all dealt with various ailments during the Tulane game, but Hardaway says all three are good to go this week.

Jordan Brown, who returned to the program last week, didn’t play at Tulane last Sunday. But that’s expected to change against UAB. The 6-foot-11 center has performed well in practice and is quickly earning the coaching staff’s trust, per sources.

“[Brown’s return] has been going really well because he’s gotten back into the fold of the scrimmages, being around the guys and getting basketball work,” Hardaway said Thursday. “There was no way I could put him in the game at Tulane…But after this week, you could probably start to see him in some situations.”

What UAB brings to the table

Andy Kennedy’s team has performed well in AAC play thus far, including wins over South Florida and Tulane earlier this month. The Blazers—ranked No. 146 in KenPom and No. 153 in the NET—also beat Maryland and Drake in non-conference play. They lost at Charlotte in their last game Tuesday.

Eric Gaines, a preseason All-AAC first teamer, is UAB’s leading scorer. The 6-foot-2 guard averages 12.2 points, 4.9 assists and 4.1 rebounds while shooting 37.2% from the field. He also racks up 2.4 steals per game. Gaines compiled 20 points and 4 steals in the Blazers’ win over Maryland on Nov. 12.

Yaxel Lendenborg is UAB’s top big man. The 6-foot-9 forward averages 11.5 points and 9 rebounds while shooting 50% on his field goal attempts and 38.9% on his 3-point tries. Lendenborg also blocks 2.1 blocks shots per game. He put up a season-high 18 rebounds against Tulane, and three straight performances with at least 23 points and 15 rebounds versus UNC-Asheville, UTSA and South Florida.

Other players to watch for are 6-foot-4 guard Alejandro Vasquez (10.8 points and 3.4 rebounds per game), 6-foot-9 forward Javian Davis (10.3 points and 6.7 rebounds per game) and 6-foot-4 guard Efrem Johnson (9.7 points per game and 37.9% from 3-point range).

UAB scores 76.6 points per game while shooting 44% from the field and 30% from 3-point range. The Blazers also average 38.5 rebounds and 12.7 assists, but turn the ball over 11.4 times per contest. Defensively, they rack up 11.5 forced turnovers, 6.9 steals and 4.4 blocks. KenPom ranks UAB No. 101 in adjusted offensive efficiency and No. 235 in adjusted defensive efficiency. Kennedy’s club will utilize a 1-3-1 zone for the majority of Sunday’s game, as Hardaway has noted in interviews multiple times this week.

The Prediction

Memphis bounces back with a road victory.

The week-long layoff should prove beneficial for the Tigers. UAB’s zone-heavy scheme could give Memphis fits—like South Florida’s did—but Hardaway’s team likely comes in with an increased focus that’ll help it perform better on both ends of the floor. This is a must-win game for Memphis, and the Tigers have to treat it that way.

Expect Memphis to leave Birmingham with a win.