What to expect when No. 19 Memphis visits Tulane, plus a game prediction

Penny Hardaway returns to his house of horrors on Thursday (8 p.m., ESPN2).

Memphis basketball (16-4, 6-1 AAC) takes on Tulane (11-9, 5-2 AAC) inside Devlin Fieldhouse, where the Tigers haven’t won since Dec. 16, 2020. Memphis prevailed in 14 of its first 16 visits to New Orleans this century, but has since lost its last three by an average of 3.3 points.

Hardaway is 3-3 at Tulane in his seven-year tenure, and is 7-4 against current Green Wave coach Ron Hunter. Hardaway’s four losses to Hunter are the most he has vs. any coach in the last four seasons.

Three of those are part of Memphis’ current losing streak in New Orleans, including last year’s where it entered at No. 10 in the Associated Press (AP) Top 25. The Tigers head into this week’s tilt at No. 19.

Hardaway, however, chooses to make light of his team’s recent struggles at the 91-year-old, 4,100-seat venue.

“[New Orleans] is a great place, obviously because of the food. You go down there, and they kinda reel you in with Bourbon Street. And then you go and have to play the game,” he said during his weekly radio show Monday. “You have to lock in when you go to New Orleans, obviously. It’s always a tough game there.”

Hardaway isn’t deterred by the late tipoff either.

“That’ll give me more time to go Bourbon Street,” he said with a chuckle. “They’re smart.”

Here’s what to expect when Memphis faces the Green Wave.

Hardaway wants Memphis to play more “goal-oriented” basketball.

Memphis owns two blowout victories over Florida Atlantic and UAB since starting American Athletic Conference (AAC) play earlier this month, but its five other conference games have been single-digit finishes against mostly inferior competition.

The Tigers beat North Texas and East Carolina by 4 points, Charlotte by 9 and Wichita State by 8. They also lost at Temple by 7 after getting outrebounded 49-25 and allowing 22 offensive boards. All but one of those opponents (North Texas) rank outside the top 100 in the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET).

Memphis’ inability to handle weaker foes, according to Hardaway, is partially because it’s not playing complementary basketball in most of its games. The Tigers are No. 62 in adjusted offensive efficiency and No. 33 in adjusted defensive efficiency, according to KenPom.

They held UNT, ECU, Charlotte and WSU to 70 points or lower, but they didn’t score more than 77 in any of those outings. The contrary occurred in their loss at Temple, where they allowed 88 points and scored 81.

Memphis showed what it’s capable of during Sunday’s 100-77 demolition of the Blazers, though. It firmly dominated both ends of the court, shooting 62% from the field compared to UAB’s 38%. The Tigers also dished a season-high 24 assists as seven different players—PJ Haggerty (23), Dain Dainja (21), PJ Carter (14), Colby Rogers (12), Nick Jourdain (11), Tyrese Hunter (9) and Moussa Cisse (9)—scored at least 9 points.

Hardaway now wants to start setting target numbers for Memphis to chase in each game, particularly on defense.

“We gotta be more goal-oriented when it comes to the defensive side,” he said. “We’ve been going with our game plan, but it hasn’t been like a target number. We’re gonna start having to do that, just so we can lock in more.”

Dainja becomes a permanent starter

The 6-foot-9 center started for the first time since Nov. 15 against UAB, and didn’t disappoint.

Dainja began his outing with a ferocious dunk over star big man Yaxel Lendeborg, and firmly dominated the Blazers from there. He finished the game with his aforementioned 21 points (10-of-12 shooting), 8 rebounds, a block and a steal in just 25 minutes before fouling out at the 6:21 mark in the second half. He even scored 10 consecutive Memphis points over a three-minute span in the first half.

Hardaway, who told reporters postgame that Dainja will remain in the Tigers’ opening lineup moving forward, wasn’t surprised in the slightest.

“Exactly what I thought was gonna happen happened. He went out there and dominated,” Hardaway said.

What Tulane brings to the table

Tulane, which boasts the AAC’s No. 2 scoring defense (68.55 points allowed per game), has already won as many conference games as it did last season despite losing Kevin Cross, Sion James, Jaylen Forbes and others in the offseason.

But Hunter’s group—No. 151 in the NET—still represents a potential Quad 3 loss for Memphis. The Green Wave, who own no wins in Quads 1 or 2 and five combined defeats in Quads 3 and 4, are also No. 131 in Bart Torvik and No. 145 in KenPom. The latter metric slots them at No. 156 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency.

Indiana transfer Kaleb Banks is Tulane’s new anchor. The 6-foot-8 forward averages 17.5 points, 7.4 rebounds and 1.2 blocks while shooting 51.9% overall and 35.2% on 3-pointers. Banks has recorded seven double-doubles this year—including a 33-point, 16-rebound performance against Florida State last month.

Georgetown transfer Rowan Brumbaugh headlines Tulane’s backcourt. The 6-foot-4 guard puts up 14.5 points, 4.7 assists, 3.2 rebounds and 1.3 steals per contest while shooting 42.1% on field goals and 35.5% from beyond the arc. Brumbaugh has scored double-figure points in 16 consecutive games, and his 94 assists rank second in the AAC.

Kam Williams is the reigning AAC Freshman of the Week for the second time this season. The 6-foot-8 guard averages 9.9 points, 4.3 rebounds, 1.9 steals and 1.1 blocks while shooting 49% from the field and 42.9% at the 3-point line. Williams compiled 11 points, 6 boards, 3 blocks and 2 steals in Tulane’s win over Rice last Saturday.

Other players to watch for are 6-foot-7 forward Gregg Glenn III (9.5 points, 5.9 rebounds and 3.3 assists), 6-foot-3 guard Asher Woods (9.5 points, 2.3 assists and 2 rebounds) and 6-foot-5 guard Mari Jordan (8 points and 3.9 rebounds).

The Prediction

Tulane upsets Memphis in New Orleans for the fourth consecutive year.

The Tigers are obviously the better team here, but the Green Wave have too many threats for them to get away with anything less than their best effort.

Memphis has allowed an average of 87.3 points during its three-game skid at Devlin Fieldhouse. Tulane’s elite 3-point defense (29.9%)—plus its ability to take advantage of Memphis’ weak perimeter coverage—doesn’t bode well for the away team either.

Expect Hunter to best Hardaway yet again.