What to expect when No. 21 Memphis hosts Mississippi State, plus a game prediction

Memphis basketball has already played four Quad 1 games this season, but none have taken place inside FedExForum.

That changes when the No. 21 Tigers (9-2) host Mississippi State—No. 20 in the NCAA’s NET rankings—Saturday (11:30 a.m., CBS). This is the first of two consecutive contests Memphis will play against an SEC school from Mississippi. The Tigers also face No. 17 Ole Miss at home on Dec. 28.

Memphis boasts victory in 10 of its 16 meetings with MSU since 1959. The latest matchup saw Penny Hardaway’s Tigers handle the Bulldogs 77-64 in the 2020-21 NIT championship. The two schools haven’t played in Memphis since 1983.

A win for Hardaway’s club gives it seven in Quads 1 and 2 (four in Quad 1). Its six victories in that department already top the rest of the country. Memphis’ resume additionally features three wins over Associated Press (AP) Top 25 opponents (No. 11 UConn, No. 20 Michigan State and No. 25 Clemson), and three wins over preseason conference champions (Ohio, UConn and Louisiana Tech).

Hardaway’s repeatedly acknowledged the sparse attendance in the Tigers’ first four home games, in which they took on three mid-major schools. But the seventh-year coach hopes to see a larger crowd for the late-morning tip this weekend. He thinks his team—given what it’s accomplished through 11 games—deserves it too.

”This team has a care factor for the city. They wanna make us proud. They wanna make the city proud. What a better way to show that the city responds to that by coming out against a really good Mississippi State team,” Hardaway said on 92.9 FM ESPN’s “Jason & John” show Thursday. “It makes a huge difference when a team comes into the building, and sees a standing-room-only crowd. That intimidates them. That gets the juices going in your team. So, we need the entire city to come out, man.

”We really need to get [FedExForum] packed out because the guys deserve it, the city deserves it and we’re winning. I want all of us to feel that energy on Saturday.”

Here’s what to expect as Memphis and Mississippi State renew this mid-south rivalry.

No shooting? No problem.

Memphis entered Wednesday’s 64-62 win at Virginia as the nation’s No. 2 perimeter shooting team, but it mostly did anything but put the ball through the basket against the Cavaliers.

PJ Haggerty showed out with 27 points, 5 rebounds and 5 assists on 8-of-15 shooting, but the Tigers’ other lead guards struggled mightily. Tyrese Hunter finished with 12 points, 3 assists and 3 rebounds while shooting 4-for-11 from the field and 2-of-8 from 3-point range. Colby Rogers, meanwhile, scored just 3 points on 1-for-11 shooting.

Memphis still managed to outscore Virginia 43-32 in the second half, however, despite trailing by 9 points at halftime. The Tigers also began the final period with a 26-9 run, and dropped 18 points in the paint following intermission.

Memphis shot 22% on 3-pointers for the game after going 2-for-14 from deep in the first half. It’s obviously not ideal, but at least Hardaway knows the Tigers can win under those circumstances if need be.

“You gotta think about everything as far as [the NCAA Tournament], right? You get into an NCAA game and you have to win a game on your defense, then that’s what you have to do,” he told reporters Thursday. “We hang our hat on defense. We don’t hang our hat on making shots to win a game.”

Is depth becoming an issue?

Memphis is never going to be a deep team in 2024-25. The depth required doesn’t exist right now, nor has it existed at any point this year—even when Tyreek Smith was still on the roster.

But Hardaway’s top-heavy minute distribution in recent games is still quite eye-opening. Haggerty played at least 40 minutes in back-to-back outings at Clemson and Virginia. He, Hunter and Rogers played 44, 41 and 40 minutes respectively in Memphis’ overtime win over the orange Tigers. Hunter also sat for just two minutes against UVA.

Nick Jourdain played 34 and 37 minutes respectively in the two matchups, while Dain Dainja accounted for 28 and 26. Moussa Cisse also played 24 against Clemson, but nobody outside of Memphis’ top six played more than six minutes. No reserves besides Dainja played more than nine at Virginia.

“There is some concern, because Tyrese Hunter is about 75% [healthy] and we still have to play him a ton of minutes. We try to hold PJ Haggerty out of practice with load management, kinda like the NBA, so we’ve been using the minutes in the game to go all-out,” Hardaway said. “We don’t wanna play PJ Haggerty 40 minutes every game. We don’t wanna play Tyrese Hunter 36-37. We want Baraka Okojie and PJ Carter to come in and get 15-20 minutes, and have a balance in the rotation.”

What Mississippi State brings to the table

Mississippi State (10-1) is rocking to start Chris Jans’ third season.

The Bulldogs, who own two Quad 1 victories, are No. 26 in both KenPom and Bart Torvik. KenPom also ranks MSU No. 17 in adjusted offensive efficiency and No. 51 in adjusted defensive efficiency. Jans’ team grabs 12.3 offensive rebounds per games, which grants it an average of 9.5 extra scoring chances (No. 4 in Division I).

Josh Hubbard is one of college basketball’s brightest young stars. The 5-foot-11 sophomore averages 18 points, 3.5 assists and 1.2 steals while shooting 44.3% overall and 40.7% on 3-pointers. Hubbard has scored 22 points or more in five games this year. His best performance thus far came against Utah on Nov. 17, when he compiled 23 points and on 5-for-9 perimeter shooting.

KeyShawn Murphy is having a breakout junior season. The 6-foot-10 forward puts up 10.2 points, 7.5 rebounds and 1.1 blocks per game while sinking 51.4% of his field goal tries. Murphy scored a season-high 20 points on 8-for-10 shooting to go with 7 rebounds and a block during Mississippi State’s blowout win over Pittsburgh on Dec. 4.

Memphis native Cameron Matthews does a little bit of everything for the Bulldogs. The 6-foot-7 forward averages 7.2 points, 7.2 rebounds, 3.8 assists and 2.5 steals on 60% shooting. Matthews—a Bulldog for four-plus seasons—has eclipsed 10 or more rebounds three times this year. He’s also dished 7 or more assists twice. His finest outing saw him record 9 points, 13 rebounds, 4 assists, 4 steals and a block against Pittsburgh.

Other players to watch for are 6-foot-4 guard Claudell Harris Jr. (10.7 points on 36.1% perimeter shooting), 6-foot-5 guard Riley Kugel (8.4 points and 3.2 rebounds), 6-foot-10 center Michael Nwoko (8.2 points, 5.9 rebounds and 1.1 blocks) and 6-foot-7 forward RJ Melendez (7.9 points, 3.5 rebounds and 1.1 steals).

The Prediction

Memphis wins a close battle.

It’ll be a tough one either way, but the Tigers’ home-court advantage and superior backcourt should be enough to squeak out another quality victory. A potentially raucous environment is likely a bit too much for Mississippi State to handle right now, since it’s played just one true road game at this point.

Expect Hardaway and Co. to protect home court.