What to expect when No. 21 Memphis hosts North Texas, plus a game prediction

There are very few opportunities to earn a quality win in the American Athletic Conference (AAC). No. 21 Memphis gets one this weekend.

The Tigers (11-3, 1-0 AAC) host North Texas (10-3, 1-0 AAC) inside FedExForum Sunday (4 p.m., ESPN). The Mean Green are currently No. 76 in the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) rankings, making this a Quad 3 game for Memphis. But it can easily flip to Quad 2 if UNT moves into the top 75 before season’s end.

North Texas is also the last top-100 NET team on Memphis’ schedule. The Tigers’ highest-rated foe left after Sunday’s game is Wichita State (No. 102 in the NET). Penny Hardaway’s club leads the nation with nine wins in Quads 1 and 2. Six of those victories came against top-100 NET opponents.

Memphis routed Florida Atlantic 90-62 in its AAC opener. Computer metrics like KenPom and Bart Torvik projected the Tigers’ win at FAU—No. 91 in the NET before tipoff—to be their biggest test in conference play.

Memphis, which is favored to go undefeated in its AAC slate, obviously passed with flying colors. But Hardaway isn’t getting complacent.

“In this conference, you’re gonna be the hunted. So, you gotta wear that really well. You gotta embrace that,” he said Thursday. “It’s a lot of people that wanna be in our shoes right now. We have a great thing going on with a great team and a great staff. We have to come and represent ourselves in a great fashion…We’re sharing the same vision to wanna win this conference.”

Here’s what to expect in Memphis’ only meeting with North Texas this year.

Memphis faces its stiffest defense yet.

North Texas is currently the No. 5 scoring defense in Division I at 57.9 points per game, which is better than any unit Memphis has faced so far. Virginia (No. 11), Auburn (No. 36), San Francisco (No. 46) and Ole Miss (No. 48) are the only top-50 scoring defenses the Tigers played in their non-conference schedule.

UNT hasn’t allowed more than 76 points in a game this season, and its opponents only eclipsed 70 points twice in 13 outings. The Mean Green, who also average 15 forced turnovers (No. 48 in Division I), even boast six instances where they’ve held their opposition under 60 points.

“I respect—unlike the nation—every team in this league. North Texas is a good team,” Hardaway said. “They’re well-coached. They hold you under 60 points. They play extremely hard.”

Some of North Texas’ staggering defensive numbers can be taken with a grain of salt, though, since it hasn’t met an offense as efficient as Memphis.

KenPom ranks the Tigers No. 34 in adjusted offensive efficiency. Utah State, which beat the Mean Green 61-57 on Nov. 29, is next at No. 49.

Dain Dainja is at his best in foul trouble.

Most players are at their least effective whenever they get into foul trouble, but that isn’t the case with Dain Dainja—at least in his past two games.

The 6-foot-9 center scored 10 of his 16 points on 4-of-4 shooting after committing his fourth foul in the Tigers’ win over Ole Miss last Saturday. He also finished that performance with 5 rebounds, 2 blocks and a steal.

Dainja then rang up 4 personals by the 14:59 mark in the second half at Florida Atlantic, but Hardaway kept him on the floor anyway. The Illinois transfer paid his coach’s trust forward.

Dainja scored 16 points on 7-for-9 shooting over the next 10 minutes, and played a major role in stretching Memphis’ 10-point halftime lead to as many as 28 in the final period. He totaled 5 rebounds, 2 steals and a block in the contest too before concluding his evening with more than four minutes to play.

Dainja (11.4 points and 6.5 rebounds per game) has come off the bench in 11 consecutive games, but he’s quickly establishing himself as one of the best big men in the AAC.

“What a blessing to be able to have Dain Dainja coming off your bench,” Hardaway said. “At any time, he can get going like he did…Dain himself adds a different layer, because he can score the basketball in bunches.”

What North Texas brings to the table

Ross Hodge is having a good second season at the helm despite losing Jason Edwards (Vanderbilt), Rubin Jones (Michigan), CJ Noland (New Mexico), Aaron Scott (St. John’s) and others to the transfer portal.

North Texas, which is No. 77 in Bart Torvik and No. 80 in KenPom, owns two Quad 2 victories (Oregon State and Northern Iowa) and is undefeated in Quads 3 and 4. KenPom also ranks the Mean Green No. 135 in adjusted offensive efficiency and No. 44 in adjusted defensive efficiency—the latter interestingly being 16 spots below Memphis (No. 28).

Drake transfer Atin Wright replaces Edwards as UNT’s top scorer. The 6-foot-1 guard averages 13.5 points, 2 assists and 1.2 steals while shooting 38.1% overall and 39% on 3-pointers. Wright dropped a season-high 22 points and hit a game-winning 3-pointer at the buzzer to complete an 18-point comeback and defeat UAB on Tuesday.

Florida Atlantic transfer Brenen Lorient provides solid offense off the bench. The 6-foot-8 forward puts up 10.6 points and 3.8 rebounds per game on 59.8% shooting. Lorient has scored in double figures six times this season.

Fairfield transfer Jasper Floyd is the Mean Green’s best playmaker. The 6-foot-3 guard averages 8.2 points, 3.9 assists and 1.3 steals on 39.3% shooting. Floyd has notched 4 or more assists in eight games.

Other players to watch for are 6-foot-1 guard Latrell Jossell (9.4 points and 1.8 steals on 39.1% 3-point shooting), 6-foot-6 guard Jonathan Massie (9.3 points, 4.8 rebounds and 1.2 steals), 6-foot-5 guard Rondel Walker (5.1 points, 5.2 rebounds and 1.1 steals) and 6-foot-9 forward Moulaye Sissoko (4.9 points and 5.5 rebounds).

The Prediction

Memphis wins and becomes the first team to score at least 80 points on North Texas in 2024-25.

The Mean Green are elite defensively. But the Tigers’ backcourt trio of Tyrese Hunter, PJ Haggerty and Colby Rogers is a much tougher guard than anything UNT has seen this season.

Basic stats suggest North Texas can give Memphis more than a few fits. The computers, however, heavily tilt the scales in the Tigers’ favor.

Expect Memphis to overwhelm Hodge’s club in another decisive victory.