What to expect when No. 24 Memphis hosts Wichita State, plus a game prediction

Memphis basketball is back at home for the first time in nearly two weeks.

The No. 24 Tigers (14-4, 4-1 AAC) host Wichita State (11-7, 1-4 AAC) inside FedExForum on Thursday (6 p.m., ESPN2). The Shockers—No. 158 in the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET)—represent what’s currently a Quad 3 opportunity for Memphis, though it becomes Quad 4 if WSU drops three spots. Memphis isn’t projected to play a game outside of Quads 3 and 4 until March 2 at UAB. The Tigers meet the Blazers for the first time this season at home Sunday.

Penny Hardaway’s club comes off a two-game road trip with a loss at Temple and a win at Charlotte. A couple of the Tigers’ most glaring weaknesses restrained them in both outings. Temple completely outclassed Memphis on the boards in Philadelphia, grabbing 49 rebounds compared to the Tigers’ 25. The Owls also secured 22 offensive rebounds in the 88-81 victory last Thursday—nearly matching Memphis’ total rebounding on the offensive glass alone.

Memphis finished possessions at a much better rate against Aaron Fearne’s 49ers, winning the rebounding tally 42-28. But it only won last Sunday’s game by 9 points after leading by as many as 22 with five minutes to go, since Charlotte finished the game with a 19-6 run. The Tigers limited themselves even more with 16 turnovers, including at least one from every player.

Memphis’ NCAA Tournament outlook hasn’t been too affected by its recent struggles, since it’s still a projected top-6 seed by ESPN’s Joe Lunardi, CBS Sports’ Jerry Palm, Bracketville’s Dave Ommen and others. But advanced metrics are punishing the Tigers a lot more for their sloppy play. They’re currently No. 40 in KenPom, No. 42 in the NET and No. 49 in Bart Torvik. That’s at least 10 spots down in each computer from where they ranked before defeating East Carolina by 4 points earlier this month.

Hardaway isn’t overly concerned with where his team is in late January, though. His goal is for Memphis to—perhaps slowly, but surely—reach its peak in time for the Big Dance. He’ll take whatever criticism comes the Tigers’ way on the chin for now.

“I’ve kind of put myself in this bubble of being the best team in March, even though we’re harshly judged for what we do. [We’re] the only team in the [Associated Press] Top 25 that’s probably gonna get judged that way because they don’t respect our conference,” he said. “I’m trying to be the best team—no matter who we play—in March. If we’re as good as we need to be in March, then it doesn’t matter who we play. We’ll be ready. Right now, it’s tiny steps in little increments of us doing some things great and then doing some things bad. That’s just gonna happen right now. We’re just gonna keep trying to wash away all the bad stuff, and keep building off the good stuff.”

Here’s what to expect in Colby Rogers’ (11.7 points per game) first meeting with Wichita State since transferring to Memphis after last season.

Hardaway is loving Dante Harris

The midseason transfer guard is getting more comfortable each game.

Harris averages just 2 points, 1.6 rebounds, an assist and a steal, but his impact through five showings is more prevalent outside the box score. The 6-foot redshirt senior is a steady presence defensively, and has sparked Memphis’ energy on numerous occasions. He’s a solid playmaker too, as evidenced by his 4 assists against East Carolina.

Hardaway has consistently lauded Harris for his selflessness and leadership since the latter joined the team last month. Harris is seemingly penciled in as the Tigers’ lead guard off the bench moving forward.

“Dante’s good, because he’s different both ways. He’s our best on-ball defender, and he might have the best vision out of anyone on the team,” Hardaway said during his weekly radio show Monday. “When he comes in, the tempo changes both ways and that’s a good thing.”

George Mason transfer Baraka Okojie might have a lesser role moving forward, though. The 6-foot-3 guard didn’t play against Charlotte despite logging 10.6 minutes per game this season. Okojie (1.1 points and 0.9 assists) is a good defender like Harris, but he’s also been a constant liability for Memphis’ offense. Hardaway confirmed to Tigers play-by-play man Dave Woloshin postgame that Okojie’s absence was a healthy scratch.

“We don’t have time for feelings right now,” he said. “Baraka will be OK. He’ll be ready for his moment when he gets it.”

Has Memphis found a set rotation?

Memphis’ depth and rotation has been a hot topic throughout the entire campaign, especially during its non-conference slate where it earned eight of its 10 combined wins in Quads 1 and 2.

Lead guard PJ Haggerty (22.1 points per game, No. 2 in Division I) is an invaluable piece. So are his backcourt mates Tyrese Hunter (15.1 points and 3.4 assists) and Rogers. But all three are carrying too much weight. Haggerty plays 36.6 minutes per contest, good for 11th in the country. Hunter logs 34.8, while Rogers averages 31.6.

Hardaway didn’t exactly solve that issue against Charlotte, since Haggerty (37), Rogers (33) and Hunter (31) all played more than 30 minutes. But he trimmed his lineup down to eight Tigers last Sunday, and each one compiled at least 13 minutes.

What Wichita State brings to the table

Paul Mills’ Shockers enter Thursday night ice-cold with four losses in their last five games.

WSU, which owns no wins outside of Quads 3 and 4, is currently No. 146 in KenPom and No. 171 in Bart Torvik. KenPom also ranks it No. 138 in adjusted offensive efficiency and No. 169 in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Shockers allow 75.33 points per contest, which amounts to the third-worst scoring defense in the American Athletic Conference (AAC).

Xavier Bell, a Wichita, Kansas native, is the Shockers’ top bucket-getter. The 6-foot-2 guard averages 14.8 points, 3.2 rebounds and 1.1 steals while shooting 47.2% from the field and 41.3% from 3-point range. Bell has scored double-figure points in 10 consecutive games, including four 20-point performances in that span.

Georgia transfer Justin Hill is Wichita State’s lead guard. The 5-foot-11 senior puts up 13.6 points, 3.4 assists, 3.3 rebounds and 1.2 steals per game on 36.9% shooting. Hill, who scored 31 points in his Wichita debut against Western Kentucky, boasts five outings with 5 or more assists.

Saint Peter’s transfer Corey Washington is WSU’s top frontcourt player. The 6-foot-5 forward averages 13.5 points, 7.7 rebounds and 1.2 steals while shooting 42.9% overall and 33.3% on 3-pointers. Washington has recorded four double-doubles this year. He also notched a season-high 18 rebounds vs. East Carolina last Saturday.

Other players to watch for are 6-foot-11 center Quincy Ballard (10.7 points, 8.8 rebounds and 1.8 blocks), 6-foot-5 guard Harlond Beverly (9.1 points, 3.8 rebounds, 2.8 assists and 1.3 steals) and 6-foot-6 forward Ronnie DeGray III (6.2 points and 3.7 rebounds).

The Prediction

Memphis handily defeats Wichita State.

This the Tigers’ first time seeing the Shockers since being eliminated by them in last year’s AAC Tournament. Hardaway and senior forward Nick Jourdain, Memphis’ only returning scholarship player from last season, surely want revenge. Rogers likely hopes to rack up big numbers against his former team too.

Expect Memphis to light tons of fireworks for the home crowd.