Who gets the Grizzlies final roster spot?

The time is fast approaching when teams must begin narrowing down their rosters… And Memphis is no different. Soon, they’ll have to trim their rotation from their current number down to 15 guys. Well, between you, me, and the fence post, I think the process is going to be much more complex than anticipated, at least on their end.

Take a moment and consider the following: the Grizzlies have 21 (?!) dudes on the roster at this moment. That’s what some would call having “too many cooks in the kitchen.” Look, I’m no math genius, but I’m pretty confident that means six guys that are currently on the roster will need to be 86’d before the first game of the season.

That’s quite the number to shed. To get an idea of which direction the Grizzlies are leaning, the best place to start is at the top of the roster. For the sake of this exercise, let’s pencil in the starters (upon 12’s return) as follows and count the next five guys to be in the rotation as well:

These ten dudes are all hoopers. As well as, for the most part, proven playoff performers. I will say that, in my humble opinion, the most desirable trade target on Memphis’ roster is Aldama. He’s a quality rotation piece and on a great deal. His current contract has him making $2,194,200 this upcoming season. Throw in the fact that the dude has one hell of a three-ball, and that’s a player I would want on my team.

I’m not saying I want to trade him. Quite the opposite; I’d keep him here forever if I could. I’m only saying that it would not surprise me if teams showed interest. That’s it. You’ll notice Brandon Clarke here. The fact that he’s injured makes him no less a part of this squad. We’re safe to bring our total up to ten.

There are still 11 players on the roster. And we’ve got to get down to 15. Full steam ahead! Let’s throw our six young projects in the pot too. We can always package one of the six with Dillon’s TPE closer to the trade deadline. Let’s keep Vince Williams Jr. on his two-way too, and plan on Memphis signing GG to that other spot. Again, for this exercise, we can/can’t have them. Do you know what I’m saying? These six are staying:

“Ruh roh, Raggy.” That’s 14 guys and the two-ways, which leaves us with one roster spot left. And we’ve still got five guys still on the roster. And you know what? I’m counting the following three guys out:

• Jacob Gilyard (keep him with the Hustle)
• Tarik Biberovic (draft and stash overseas)
• Isaiah Todd (in all likelihood traded or cut)

Look, nothing against these guys. It’s the basketball business, you know? And if I’m being honest, I enjoyed what I saw out of Gilyard and Biberovic at Summer League. Let’s keep them both in orbit, ok? I know very little about Todd, except he was included after the mention of the pick swaps when I first saw the trade. Not a good look. With those three guys out, and one spot left, we’ve reached the Grand Poobah. There’s one spot on the roster left. And two guys vying for the spot:

• John Konchar
• Josh Christopher

You’ve seen Ali vs. Frazier, Balboa vs. Drago, Schwarzenegger/Weathers/Ventura/Duke vs. the Predator… A long line of heavyweight showdowns. The latest to join these ranks? Jitty vs. Jaygup. Konchar vs. Christopher. JK vs. JC. Any of those will do.

Memphis is going to have to make a choice. Whoever they determine to be the 15th man in the rotation will signal many things. Will the Grizzlies focus on stability or upside? We will take a look into both options and said options’ alternatives. It’s necessary to infer which way the team is leaning—I know which way I am.

In this corner, John ‘Jitty’ Konchar…

What is left to say about ‘Jitty’ that someone hasn’t spoken on already? The consistency and adequacy he exhibits have become something for Memphis to rely on. Taylor Jenkins, in particular, seems more than willing to fall back on Konchar should the need arise. You know what you’re getting with ‘Jitty’… that is, until you don’t.

Konchar has been the definition of a consistent 10th or 11th man in the NBA, at least until this point. After showing consistency through three seasons with the Grizzlies, his production didn’t plateau… It dipped in a pretty drastic way. And I’m not talking about his per-game averages. ‘Jitty’ is often an analytics darling, so we’re getting analytical.

Take a look at his PER 36 numbers. Don’t worry; we’re going to be giving ‘Jaygup’ the same treatment. After previously never dipping a half point below ten, he merely averaged 8.8 PTS/36 minutes last season. This wasn’t the only cause for concern either. His rebound and assist numbers hit personal lows (7.5 REB, 2.4 AST), as did his shooting numbers. Now, his rebound numbers are always going to be good—he’s sort of a rebounding guard, you know? They trust him to bring down the boards.

Memphis also trusted him to knock down shots the three seasons prior. It made sense at that point. In three seasons, he never shot the ball less than 50% from the field and less than 37% from deep. Last year his shooting PER 36 minutes fell all the way to 43.1% from the field and 33.1% from beyond the arc. Those numbers are less than ideal when you’re supposed to be able to make those shots…

And it doesn’t stop there. Konchar’s offense has remained middling at times. This past season he only ranked in the 62nd percentile in pts/possession and the 42nd percentile with his eFG%. That’s per Cleaning the Glass. But hey, it’s not like Konchar is bad. Quite the contrary. Those numbers happen to be adequacy at its finest. I’m talking a really neat milk style of play. With all the changes occurring on the roster, TJ may want a familiar face at the end of the bench. Can we blame him?

Now… if Konchar wins the battle for the final roster spot, where does that put ‘Jaygup’? Unfortunately, on the trade block, most likely. His $2,485,200 salary for this coming year would pair well with Isaiah Tood’s $1,836,096. Throw in a dash of DB’s $7,492,540 TPE… and you got yourself a stew going. I didn’t pull those figures out of my hindquarters either. That’s per Spotrac. Not to mention, Memphis would most likely need to include one of their young wings in the deal too. Just in order to play the numbers game with the roster. That has to interest somebody, right?

…and his opponent, Josh ‘Jaygup’ Christopher

Alrighty, friends, buckle up because here’s where things get interesting. He was almost given away as an afterthought in the Dillon Brooks trade… but Josh Christopher is anything but that. Sent by way of Houston, JC’s per-game averages with the Rockets never screamed, “Hey, look at me, I’m a valuable piece of a rotation!” In fact, these numbers got worse from his rookie year to year two. That is never what you want to see.

Now granted, the last thing I’m going to do is hold it against ‘Jaygup.’ That Rockets team was a circus half the time—some of the worst basketball to watch in recent memory. Watching players waste their developmental years is never what I enjoy seeing. In particular, I hated watching Christopher flounder in his 12 minutes per game.

JC never stood a chance in Houston. Being buried behind Jalen Green and Eric Gordon on the depth chart, all but assured that. What would you call his 5.8 PTS, 1.1 REB, 1.1 AST? The word that comes to my mind is ‘pedestrian’. The thing is, when you watch ‘Jaygup’ hoop, he serves up a potential/upside cocktail every time he takes the court.

Let’s examine that upside. As with Konchar, we’re going to take a look at Christopher’s numbers PER 36 minutes. Those tell a different story. Like a story about a samurai who befriends the Animorphs, you know? A super cool and remarkable story that you want to talk to your friends about, am I right? …right? …Bueller? …WAIT. That’s it! That’s the story! Josh Christopher is like Ferris Bueller’s Day Off… beyond cool, with the potential to have immense staying power.

His PER 36 minutes averages last season were as follows: 17.0 PTS, 3.3 REB, 3.3 REB, and 1.5 STL, all while making 55% of his twos. That’s more points than ‘Jitty’ ever averaged per 36 minutes. Along with comparable assist and steal numbers. Christopher played fewer minutes in year two yet still produced more. Doing more with less. That’s a quality you’d love all your hoopers to have, huh?

The thing is, ‘Jaygup’ isn’t producing on the offensive end alone. He’s also shown the development of his defensive acumen as well. Last year, he was in the upper 84th percentile league-wide in BLK% and ftDR%. Additionally, his STL%, FOUL%, and fgOR% were in at least the top 64th percentile in the league. All this per Cleaning the Glass.

Why not roll the dice on the kid who is in clear possession of more upside? Especially when you consider you have Marcus Smart on the roster. Consider ‘Jaygup’ is like a diet cola version of Marcus but in a juice box. Gnarly. A guard capable of disrupting both ends of the floor but much younger. Wouldn’t it behoove that type of player to, I don’t know… develop on the bench behind Smart for the entirety of Smart’s deal? I refuse to believe I’m the only one who thinks this—the upside capability that JC has is palpable.

So if ‘Jaygup’ takes the final spot on the roster… where does that leave ‘Jitty.’ When you consider Konchar’s contract is only $84,500 less than JC’s, he’s most likely in the same trade boat. When cobbled together with Todd and Memphis’ TPE, in addition to ‘picking a wing… any wing,’ you can get around the same package. I imagine there’s at least one team out there that considers that desirable.

And the winner by split decision…

The goal is to win a championship, correct? If I’m wrong, please tell me, but that’s what I want for this team. If bringing a title to Memphis is the ultimate goal, then I’ve got to go with ‘Jaygup’. The upside potential is one hundred percent worth the risk. We are talking about the 15th roster spot, remember?

Think about it— Christopher can stay ready at the end of the bench next year. Assuming everyone is healthy, JC will have the next three seasons to develop his defense. And he can do so behind Marcus Smart. What negatives come with learning from a guy like him? I’d love to hear them. Considering he’s only going to make $6,831,815 over the next two years… which reminds me…

This has nothing to do with Konchar. It has everything to do with the $18,495,000 he’s due to make over the next three seasons. Yeah, not sure if folks remember, but his extension is about to kick in. The question you have to ask is, “does ‘Jitty’ warrant that kind of money?”

Starting with the 24/25 season, Konchar’s annual salary will rank 175th in the NBA. Is he a top 200 guy in the league? That’s up to you. All I know is Christopher’s salary only has him ranked 252nd. He has the opportunity to outperform that rank in a big way. The potential is there. Look, I love ‘Jitty’… but I’m not sure there’s another level with him. It’s a tough fight, but with a championship in mind— give me ‘Jaygup’ all day.