How Colby Rogers takes Memphis basketball’s offense to the next level

Memphis basketball is built on tons of prolific scoring this season.

PJ Haggerty tops the charts most nights with 21.3 points per game, the nation’s sixth-highest average. Dain Dainja’s smooth post moves earn him 12.8 points per contest, and that average increases to 16.4 since he became a permanent starter eight games ago. In fact, both led Memphis with 22 points respectively during its 84-65 win over Florida Atlantic inside FedExForum Sunday.

Tyrese Hunter, meanwhile, dropped just 9 points on FAU, though that’s an outlier from his usual 14.7 per game. Both he and Haggerty shoot better than 41% from 3-point range too.

But Colby Rogers just might be the Tigers’ X factor on offense. The 6-foot-3 sharpshooter is averaging just 8.9 points throughout American Athletic Conference (AAC) play while shooting 37.2% from the perimeter, and has finished with less than 10 points in nine of Memphis’ 14 conference games.

Both marks represent a massive downturn from his non-conference figures—12.8 points per game and 40.2% on 3-pointers. His 15 points against FAU, however, put Memphis over the top. Penny Hardaway made that clear postgame.

“It’s unfair to say this, but it’s also true. When he’s on, we’re tough. We’re extremely tough,” Hardaway said. “It makes us a really dynamic team.”

Memphis’ offensive attack is simply at a different level whenever Rogers plays well. The Tigers average 82.7 points in games where he scores double-figures. They’re also 12-2 in those outings. On the flip side, they average 76.2 points and are 10-3 in games where he doesn’t.

Rogers averaged 16.3 points on 51.2% 3-point shooting in Memphis’ six Quad 1 victories this season. That includes 19 points (3-of-6 on 3-pointers) against UConn, 22 points (4-for-7 on 3-pointers) at Clemson and 28 points (6-of-9 on 3-pointers) against Ole Miss. He shot 50% from beyond the arc vs. Florida Atlantic.

“You don’t have three great defensive guards, so you gotta guard Tyrese, PJ [Haggerty] and Colby. If Colby’s off, then maybe they can put a guy on him that’s not as good defensively and then try to stop Tyrese and PJ,” Hardaway said. “When all three of those guys are on, especially Colby, he’s like the key—to me—with our team.”

Rogers’ slump in AAC play has coincided with the emergence of UTSA transfer PJ Carter. The 6-foot-4 guard averaged 3.8 points in Memphis’ first 19 games, but has bumped that up to 9.8 over the Tigers’ last eight. He’s also shooting 42.2% from 3-point range in the latter span.

Many thought Carter’s recent performances earned him a starting nod over the struggling Rogers, but Hardaway kept his faith in the former Wichita State Shocker—even after he missed what would’ve been the game-winning shot in a loss to his old team last week. Hardaway’s trust in Rogers paid off, and helped Memphis earn a bounce-back victory.

“I know that he’s been in a slump, but I [also] know that [he can] make one shot and then it can go the other way. So, my belief in him keeps him in there,” Hardaway said. “That’s no disrespect to PJ Carter, because PJ’s OK whether he starts or not…Colby needs to get that confidence. He needs to know that you’re behind him.

“A confident Colby Rogers is a dangerous Colby Rogers. I know that. That’s why I keep confidence in him.”

Rogers and No. 22 Memphis (22-5, 12-2 AAC) host Rice on Wednesday (7 p.m., ESPN+).