Memphis Grizzlies vs. Denver Nuggets Game Preview

WHO: Memphis Grizzlies (38-23, 12-18 away) at Denver Nuggets (44-19, 28-4 home)

WHERE: Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado

WHEN: 9:00 PM CT

HOW TO WATCH: ESPN

INJURY REPORT:

MEMPHIS: Ziaire Williams (Out, G-League Assignment), Steven Adams (Out, Knee)

DENVER: Aaron Gordon (Probable, rib), Michael Porter Jr. (Probable, heel), Vlatko Cancar (Questionable, wrist), Zeke Nnaji (Out, shoulder)

PROBABLE STARTING LINEUPS:

MEMPHIS: Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, Dillon Brooks, Jaren Jackson Jr., Xavier Tillman

DENVER: Jamal Murray, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon, Nikola Jokic

The Memphis Grizzlies are in Denver tonight, taking on the very best the Western Conference has to offer in the Nuggets. No team in the NBA has a better home record than the Denver Nuggets. Denver has the two-time (potentially three-time) defending MVP in Nikola Jokic. And the Nuggets also boast (in part because of Jokic’s brilliance) arguably the NBA’s best starting five in Jokic/Jamal Murray/Kentavious Caldwell-Pope/Aaron Gordon/Michael Porter Jr.

But other than that, nothing to worry about. Right?

Memphis recently knocked off the Nuggets at home in FedExForum, a result that aside from the score (112-94!) perhaps isn’t that surprising. The Grizzlies are among the NBA’s best at home themselves in terms of record (26-5) and Memphis can compete with anyone in the friendly confines of 191 Beale Street.

On the road, however? Their 12-18 mark is better than only Golden State and comparable to Cleveland in terms of the current 12 teams in the playoffs currently in the NBA standings. The Grizzlies only recently snapped an 8-game road losing streak, a Wednesday victory over the very bad Houston Rockets. All signs point to this game being a tough one for Memphis, and a chance for the Denver Nuggets to essentially clinch the #1 seed in the Western Conference with about a month to go until the playoffs.

These are the stakes for the Memphis Grizzlies. Here’s how they can find a way to win.

RECREATE THE TILLMAN/JOKER MAGIC

Xavier Tillman Sr. has been on quite the heater lately while defending some of the best bigs the NBA has to offer. First, last week he forced MVP candidate Joel Embiid to shoot a miserable 7-25 from the field. That was impressive in and of itself, but for an encore Tillman made Jokic’s life difficult on an interesting level. Part of the current debate of Jokic as an MVP three-peater is “Joker” is not an elite scorer, or at least not at a high enough volume. Arguments FOR Jokic as the MVP center around his elite ability to create offense for his teammates – he averages a triple double and his on-off numbers are ELITE.

So basically, with Jokic the Nuggets are an NBA Finals contender. Without him, they’re average at best, and potentially quite bad.

But what if it was possible to limit Jokic’s effectiveness while he was ON the floor?

Enter Xavier Tillman Sr.

Obviously it takes two to tango on an assist, and the Nuggets missed a LOT of shots in Memphis that they normally make. Those are buckets that likely fall in Ball Arena. But the fact remains that because of how Tillman played Embiid, he should get some credit for the poor passing performance of Jokic with just 3 assists.

X must be close to this level defensively once again for the Grizzlies to have a chance to win this game. Otherwise, Jokic will help his team be the best offensive versions of themselves, which has helped Denver become the NBA’s best offense. And since Memphis quite likely will not be able to keep up in terms of scoring if that version of Jokic emerges, Tillman’s ability to agitate to victory will matter immensely.

Stroke it from the bench

Santi Aldama, Tyus Jones, and Luke Kennard all figure to play large roles for the Memphis reserves in this game. These three names also are the most likely players to get hot/convert from beyond the arc on a consistent basis. Brandon Clarke is a near-zero possibility to hit a three. John Konchar in theory can hit threes, as long as they’re in rhythm and carefully curated, like the finest prosciutto of Italy or a fine Napa Valley wine.

The burden of spacing, then, falls to these three. And while Grizzlies Head Coach rarely trots out a full bench unit, lineups involving starters and these players have to be wins for Memphis in order to steal this game from the Nuggets. A Morant/Kennard/Brooks/Aldama/Tillman grouping, or a Jones/Bane/Konchar/Clarke/Jackson Jr. one, features both pick and roll potential and three-ball range. That offensive versatility could provide opportunities for the Grizzlies reserves to help build leads when Denver doesn’t have their vaunted starting unit on the floor.

But the ball has to fall. Kennard didn’t make a single three in Houston. Aldama missed his only three-point attempt, and Tyus was 2-6 – not quite good enough. Memphis must get scoring from all three of these perimeter-based reserve players with a splash of dribble creation (especially from Tyus overall and Santi, depending on matchups) to hang with the Nuggets, who have good bench players but can be had when compared to their first five.

THE PREDICTION

Denver is a consensus 5.5 point favorite entering this game, which feels fair. Again, the Nuggets are perhaps the NBA’s best team at home, and they likely will be motivated by both the chance to squash Memphis’ home-court dreams and also get a measure of revenge for their poor showing in FedExForum last weekend.

But something significant happened in Houston for the Grizzlies. Desmond Bane scored 30 points for the first time since he returned from his toe injury, showing a capacity to score in volume that he hasn’t displayed in some time. Ja Morant should be able to score on the Nuggets (Denver’s defense is average at best) and the Grizzlies defense is among the NBA’s best because of Jaren Jackson Jr.

The key is Bane. If he can be the Bane of old (pre-toe injury), Memphis can win this game. If not (or something happens to Ja, or Jaren gets in foul trouble, etc.) then the Grizzlies will lose.

There is little or no room for error for Memphis. The Nuggets have the odds in their favor.

But defense travels. And the Grizzlies will ride Jackson Jr.’s rim protecting brilliance, Bane’s resurgence, and the heroics of Ja Morant to an epic victory to keep their far-fetched top-seed dreams alive.

MEMPHIS 116, DENVER 113