What to expect in Memphis basketball’s bounce-back opportunity at VCU, plus a game prediction

Memphis basketball needs a rebound, both literally and figuratively.

It started 5-0 with three wins over top 90 KenPom teams—a road triumph at Missouri on Nov. 10 and two neutral court victories in the Battle 4 Atlantis against Michigan and Arkansas, which upset No. 22 Duke last week. While Memphis was never ranked in that stretch, it did receive more votes than any other unranked team in the AP Top 25 poll for three straight weeks. But the Tigers have now lost their last two games—a 79-63 stinker against Villanova in the Battle 4 Atlantis championship and a 80-77 heartbreaker at Ole Miss last Saturday.

Fortunately, The Tigers (5-2) have a chance to bounce back at VCU (4-4) tonight (6 p.m., ESPNU) before facing their biggest challenge yet at No. 21 Texas A&M Sunday. Memphis leads the all-time series against the Rams 5-3, and the two programs are 1-1 against each other in head coach Penny Hardaway’s tenure. VCU embarrassed Memphis 70-59 in the 2020-21 Bad Boy Mowers Crossover Classic in Sioux Falls, S.D., and the Tigers defeated the Rams 62-47 in the former’s home opener last season. Memphis is a 2.5-point favorite to win tonight.

Hardaway’s team is at a crossroads right now. It’s fallen out of favor with most analysts and media members after its two consecutive defeats. The Tigers are currently No. 69 in the NET rankings, which released Monday and will now be updated frequently for the rest of the season, and No. 41 in KenPom. They have also dropped out of the CBS Sports Top 25 and 1, and received just five top 25 votes in Monday’s AP poll. A win inside Siegel Center, however, puts Memphis on the right track to regain the high reputation it had at this time last week.

Here’s what to expect for this mid-week clash in Richmond, Va.

No more excuses, right?

Memphis, for most of the afternoon, was the better team than Ole Miss Saturday. The Tigers simply beat themselves in the game’s waning moments.

They started the contest relatively well with a a 19-2 first half run after falling behind 7-0 in the opening minutes. David Jones scored 16 points in the first half, and Malcolm Dandridge put an exclamation point on Ole Miss by posterizing former Tiger Moussa Cisse with 1:44 left in the half. The Tigers shot 41.2% from the field in the game’s first 20 minutes to take a 37-30 halftime lead.

RIP 🤯🤯@Bigdawgmalco23 did him like that. pic.twitter.com/jTVyJ5I9EX

— Memphis Basketball (@Memphis_MBB) December 2, 2023

Things got even better to start the second half when the Tigers went on a 6-0 run in the first 1:11 of the period to take a 43-32 lead, their largest of the game. With that, Memphis looked to be on its way to mid-south bragging rights and a fourth victory over a top 100 KenPom opponent—Ole Miss is No. 97.

Chris Beard’s team suddenly flipped a switch, however, and the Tigers were perhaps doomed right there. Ole Miss went on a 21-8 run in just over 5 minutes to grind out a 53-51 advantage, and could hardly be stopped after that. Memphis managed to retake the lead and even cling on to it for the majority of the second half.

But the Rebels eventually broke the Tigers’ barrier and took a 75-73 lead with 2:11 left to play. Memphis tried its best to take back control, but ultimately failed since the Rebels hit 6 of their last 8 field goal attempts. Guards Jaylen Murray (22 points), Matthew Murrell (20 points), Allen Flanigan (18 points) and others were not to be denied.

Murray in particular couldn’t miss with a 7-of-14 overall clip, and he also made 4 of his 6 attempts from 3-point range. With 18 seconds showing on the clock, the Saint Peter’s transfer converted a layup that made the score 79-77 and proved to be the game-winner for Ole Miss.

After the Rebels extended the lead to 3 points with a made free throw, the game came down to one final Memphis possession with six seconds left. The Tigers, with no timeouts, rushed the ball up the court in hopes of making a game tying 3-pointer. They evidently went too quick—or at least Jahvon Quinerly did—as the 6-foot-1 guard failed to even hit the rim on a runner attempt just beyond the arc. Jones, Memphis’ leading scorer who finished with 22 points against Ole Miss, shockingly didn’t touch the ball in that moment. In fact, he hardly touched the ball at all down stretch and didn’t even take a shot in the final 5:50 of the contest. To call that a mistake would be an understatement to most.

“I’ll take full blame for that…I should’ve put the ball in David’s hands,” Hardaway said postgame. “David had it going—definitely gotta take [blame] for that.”

Memphis and Ole Miss shot 42% and 45% respectively from the field, but the Tigers also shot 11% from 3-point range compared to a 50% clip for Ole Miss. The Rebels won the second half 50-40.

But Hardaway, as he revealed during the season’s first “Penny Hardaway Radio Show” Monday, apparently had other problems besides his team’s surprising loss Saturday. He’d been dealing with minor, periodic tooth pain for the past few weeks, but it would always go away rather quickly. It returned Friday night after the coach ate some pizza at dinner, yet the pain didn’t resolve itself this time around. It actually got so bad to the point where Hardaway managed just 30 minutes of sleep before the Ole Miss game.

“I’m like ‘God, not today. Not the Ole Miss game,'” he said.

Hardaway took aspirin before the game in hopes of relieving the toothache, but it was all for not. The pain only got worse as the game went on.

“The entire game, I’m just trying to focus, but my mouth is just killing me,” he said.

Upon completing his postgame media obligations, Hardaway went straight to a dentist and underwent two-hour surgery. He later found out he was suffering from a fractured tooth, which had to be pulled out of his mouth.

“I’m good now,” he said.

With Hardaway’s physical ailments now behind him, it’s time for the Tigers to start addressing theirs’ on the court.

Will Jordan Brown wake up?

The 6-foot-11 center won the Lou Henson Award at Louisiana last season. The award annually recognizes college basketball’s best mid-major player. And the fifth-year senior was very-much worth the honor with his averages of 19.3 points and 8.6 rebounds per game in 2022-23.

Brown’s been a shell of that player this season, however. He’s now averaging 6.1 points, 3.9 rebounds and 13.4 minutes per game. He played 31.9 minutes per contest last season. The fifth-year senior almost completely disappeared against Ole Miss Saturday after picking up two fouls in the first 1:23 of the game and playing just seven minutes total. He finished the game with 2 points and 1 rebound, which simply isn’t good enough given the expectations for him heading into this year’s campaign. Hardaway knows the Tigers need more out of Brown moving forward.

“I gotta trust Jordan more. [Seven] minutes is not enough for a guy of that level,” he said. “We need him to be a double-double guy, but he can’t do it playing [seven] minutes…I have to do a better job because we have to take advantage of Jordan on the offensive end. And we haven’t done that yet.”

In fact, Hardaway thinks Brown might be the key to unlocking the Tigers’ interior presence offensively.

“I think it’s more on Jordan telling the guards, ‘Hey man, trust me. Get me the ball,’” he said. “[Brown] has to be more vocal.”

Update: Brown will not play at VCU due to an illness. He did not travel with the team to Richmond and Dandridge will likely start in place of him.

What VCU has to offer

The Rams haven’t had a great season thus far.

Ryan Odom’s team is ranked just No. 103 in KenPom and No. 141 in the NET rankings. And while these rankings (particularly the latter) don’t matter much right now, they’re certainly indicative of VCU’s pedigree thus far.

The Rams’ best win this season is a neutral victory over Penn State (No. 127 in KenPom), but they’ve only won buy games against Samford, Radford and Seattle University besides that. VCU also owns home losses to both McNeese and Norfolk State.

VCU’s two best players are guards Max Shulga and Zeb Jackson. Shulga, a Utah State transfer from Kyiv, Ukraine, averages 16 points, 4.5 rebounds and 4 assists per game while shooting 41.7% from the field and 35.1% from 3-point range. The 6-foot-4 guard owns 17, 24 and 19-point performances against Iowa State, Boise State and Penn State respectively.

Jackson averages 14.9 points, 5.3 rebounds and 4 assists per game thus far. The 6-foot-5 guard shoots 38.8% from the field, and also puts up 1.4 steals per game. Other players to watch for are 5-foot-10 Jason Nelson (8.9 points per game), 6-foot-8 Toibu Lawal (8.6 points, 5.4 rebounds per game and a London, England native), 6-foot-7 Alphonzo Billups III (6.3 points per game), 6-foot-10 Christian Fermin (5.9 points and 5.5 rebounds per game) and 6-foot-7 Michael Belle (5.9 points, 5.5 rebounds per game and a London, England native).

The Rams collectively shoot 44.1% from the field and 32.1% from 3-point range. VCU also compiles 68 points, 35.8 rebounds, 12.5 assists, 5.5 steals, 5.4 blocks and 15 forced turnovers per game.

The Prediction

Memphis gets back on track with a win in Richmond.

There’s no such thing as a must-win game this early in the season, but this is pretty close to being one for the Tigers. Hardaway’s team is better in nearly all areas and should achieve victory with relative ease.

Siegel Center is historically a hard place to play, which is definitely concerning upon seeing how the raucous environment at Ole Miss shook the Tigers last Saturday. But as long as Memphis holds Shulga and Jackson at bay, VCU likely won’t have enough firepower to keep up against a high-scoring team like Memphis (79 points per game).

VCU is definitely the easiest opponent Memphis will face in its current road trip, so the Tigers must and should cash in on the opportunity to get their second road win of the season.