What to expect in Memphis basketball’s return to FedExForum against No. 13 Clemson, plus a game prediction

Things can change a lot in just two weeks.

They certainly did for Memphis basketball, which reached a point of uncertainty with its second straight defeat at Ole Miss on Dec. 2. The now 7-2 Tigers quickly found a resurgence, however, with back-to-back road victories at VCU and Texas A&M last week. The latter school was ranked No. 21 in the AP Top 25 poll before it faced Memphis.

What’s next for the U of M? One of the biggest home games of head coach Penny Hardaway’s tenure—for multiple reasons.

Firstly, Memphis will return to FedExForum today after playing its last six games on the road. The Tigers haven’t even seen their home court in nearly a month, one of the longest droughts in the school’s history. But Hardaway thought his team ultimately benefited from the lengthy road trip.

“We bonded more together being at the hotels—being on the road,” he said Thursday. “I never wanna play away from FedExForum that long ever again. But the bonding definitely worked for us being around each other…It’s gonna be hard for me to [be away from home for this long] again.”

Secondly, the Tigers take on a top-15 opponent in No. 13 Clemson (9-0). And though Memphis isn’t ranked in the AP poll right now, this is more or less a top-25 matchup. Hardaway’s team already owns two wins over ranked opponents this season, and is slotted at No. 22 in the CBS Sports Top 25 and 1. Memphis also received 56 votes in this week’s AP poll. The hometown Tigers are a 2.5-point favorite in what is the first ever meeting between Memphis and Clemson in men’s basketball.

Here’s what to expect in Memphis’ return to FedExForum (2 p.m., ESPN+).

Memphis’ backcourt is leading the charge.

Hardaway knew it was time for a few changes after his team’s two-game skid against Villanova and Ole Miss. The first change, however, wasn’t actually something he called for. Florida State transfer guard Caleb Mills, Memphis’ third leading scorer this season at 9.8 points per game, asked Hardaway if he could start coming off the bench after starting in five of the Tigers’ first seven games. But the sixth-year coach initially said no.

“I asked him before [the Ole Miss game],” Mills said Thursday. “That was my last game starting. Since then, Ashton [Hardaway] and Nick [Jourdain] have been in the starting lineup. So far, we’re 2-0. I just wanna win. I didn’t feel like the guys who started the game at first complimented each other well enough. But now we got Nick in there and Ashton’s a shooter and a better rebounder, which is better for the team.”

Both Mills and Wichita State transfer Jaykwon Walton came off the bench in Memphis’ wins at VCU and Texas A&M, a move that’s proven to be beneficial for Mills. The 6-foot-5 guard is averaging 15 points and 3.5 rebounds in his last two games, during which he’s played 29 and 23 minutes respectively.

Mills has also shot 4-of-5 from 3-point range in this stretch, but this isn’t anything new this year. He’s shooting a career-high 40% from the perimeter so far in 2023-24 after making just 29.4% of his attempts last season at Florida State.

“I think it’s just having to do with confidence,” he said. “Confidence comes from work. I’ve been working my tail off every day, especially this summer.”

But Mills isn’t the main piece of the puzzle. That would be St. John’s transfer David Jones, who exploded in the first half of last Sunday’s win at Texas A&M. He put up 21 points and 5 rebounds while shooting 6-of-10 from the field and 3-of-5 from 3-point range. He also blocked 2 shots and got a steal in the game’s first 20 minutes, helping the Tigers to a 38-29 halftime lead. Jones made two more 3-pointers in the second half, finishing the contest with 29 points and 7 rebounds on a 47% shooting clip.

But Jones (20.1 points and 6.6 rebounds per game) was already having a mesmerizing season before Memphis’ two-game winning streak. The difference is that he’s gotten a little bit more help in the last two games. That help has largely come in the form of both Mills and Alabama transfer point guard Jahvon Quinerly, who put up an average of 22 points, 5.5 assists and 4 rebounds against VCU and Texas A&M.

The 6-foot-1 guard was the best player on the floor for either team in the second half of the latter affair. He scored 15 points while shooting 4-of-7 from the field and 1-of-2 from 3-point range in the game’s final 20 minutes, and finished the contest with 24 points, 5 assists and 4 rebounds.

“It makes a huge difference,” Hardaway said Thursday. “We’d be undefeated if [Quinerly], Caleb and Jaykwon were playing at a high level. We wouldn’t have lost to ‘Nova. We wouldn’t have lost to Ole Miss. They struggled for about four games offensively…The main reason why we won the last two: they scored. You just need your guys to be your guys. They gotta show up.”

Nae’Qwan Tomlin will make a major impact for Memphis. He just won’t make it against Clemson—probably.

Tomlin, who committed to the Tigers early Tuesday morning, figures to replace 2023 Lou Henson Award winner Jordan Brown in Memphis’ frontcourt. Brown is not expected to return to the Tigers this season after missing the last two games with an undisclosed illness, per sources. The Louisiana transfer’s probable departure is not related to his illness, though.

A graduate transfer from Kansas State, Tomlin will be immediately eligible to play for the Tigers upon enrolling as he never suited up for the Wildcats this season. KSU dismissed the 6-foot-10 senior from its program last week. Tomlin had previously been suspended since late October, when he got arrested after a physical altercation at a sports bar in Manhattan, Kansas. He was later granted diversion in the case, per The Topeka Capital-Journal.

Tomlin comes off a productive year in Jerome Tang’s program last season. The 23-year-old averaged 10.4 points and 5.9 rebounds per game for the Wildcats while shooting 50% from the field in 2022-23. He was also a key contributor in Kansas State’s run to the Elite Eight, averaging 12.5 points, 5 rebounds and 2 blocks in last season’s NCAA Tournament. Tomlin started all 36 games for the Wildcats last year.

He’s obviously quite the mid-season addition, but he likely won’t make his debut against Clemson. Tomlin is not formally signed with Memphis right now, nor is he officially enrolled in the university. He won’t be eligible to play until those two things happen, which should be relatively soon.

Hardaway also said during an interview this week on 92.9 ESPN’s “Jason and John” show that he’s not expecting any ‘reinforcements’ for Saturday’s game.

What Clemson brings to the table

Clemson looks to be on pace for its best season yet under 14th-year head coach Brad Brownell.

The visiting Tigers, on top of their impressive AP ranking, are No. 24 in KenPom and No. 11 in the NCAA’s NET rankings. They also own road victories over Alabama and Pittsburgh, which are both ranked in the top 50 of the NET and KenPom. Alabama is ranked No. 10 in both metrics. Clemson’s notched a home win over South Carolina and a neutral court victory versus TCU in its last two outings.

Senior PJ Hall leads the way for Brownell’s team. The 6-foot-10 center averages 20 points, 7.6 rebounds and 2.6 assists per game while shooting 55% from the field and 40% from 3-point range. Hall has also been a monster defensively with marks of 2.3 blocks and a steal per contest. He’ll easily be the best big Memphis has faced thus far, and could be a major problem if Malcolm Dandridge and Nick Jourdain can’t avoid foul trouble.

Syracuse transfer guard Joseph Girard III has provided Clemson a much-needed boost. The 6-foot-2 senior averages 15 points, 3.4 assists and 3.1 assists while shooting 43.6% from the field and 44.4% from the perimeter so far this season. He also takes very good care of the basketball, giving it away just once per game on average. Girard stacked up 21 points, 5 rebounds and 4 assists in 36 minutes against TCU.

Other players to watch for are 6-foot-4 guard Chase Hunter (10.4 points, 3.6 assists and 2.4 rebounds per game), 6-foot-8 forward Ian Schieffelin (9 points and 9.6 rebounds per game), 6-foot-8 forward RJ Godfrey (7 points and 5 rebounds per game), 6-foot-10 forward Chauncey Wiggins (6 points and 2 rebounds per game) and 6-foot-3 guard Dillon Hunter (2.7 points 2.4 rebounds and 2 assists per game). Guard Alex Hemenway and forward Jack Clark remain sidelined with injuries.

Collectively, Clemson scores 79 points per game while shooting 47% on its field goal attempts and 39% from 3-point range. It also compiles (and gives up) 10 turnovers, 10 offensive rebounds, 4.6 steals and 5.2 blocks per game. Excluding Hemenway and Clark, seven of Brownell’s players average at least 17 minutes per contest.

The Prediction

Memphis pulls out a close win and sends the near-sellout crowd home happy.

Admittedly, the Tigers’ outlook for stopping Hall seems quite bleak, especially without Tomlin. But it should be noted that Memphis did a good job against Texas A&M’s Henry Coleman III last Sunday by holding him to 6 points and 6 rebounds in 26 minutes. Hardaway’s team also shut down Aggies leading scorer Wade Taylor IV, as the All-American candidate scored only 9 points on 3-of-14 shooting. Memphis has a knack for keying in on its opponent’s feature piece more often than not, so it can’t be ruled out here.

Jones and Quinerly are fully capable of going blow-for-blow with Clemson’s stars, and Mills isn’t too far behind them. Plus, who’s to say this isn’t the game where Walton finally breaks out of his 5-of-28 shooting slump? With Memphis returning to FedExForum for the first time since before Thanksgiving, its potential grows that much more.

Expect a high-scoring, high intensity, back-and-forth affair where the home crowd ultimately swings the contest in Memphis’ favor down the stretch.