What to expect in No. 16 Memphis’ rematch with South Florida, plus a game prediction

Memphis basketball is already guaranteed a share of the American Athletic Conference (AAC) regular-season championship, and now wants the whole thing before next week’s conference tournament.

The Tigers (25-5, 15-2 AAC) host South Florida (13-17, 6-11 AAC) to end the regular season Friday (8 p.m., ESPN2). A win gives Memphis the outright regular-season title. A loss, however, would force the Tigers to share the crown with North Texas if the Mean Green win their last two games.

Five Tigers—Tyrese Hunter, Dain Dainja, Colby Rogers, Nick Jourdain and Moussa Cisse—are expected to be honored during Memphis’ Senior Day festivities pregame. But PJ Carter and Dante Harris, also listed as seniors, won’t participate, Memphis coach Penny Hardaway said on 92.9 FM ESPN’s “Jason & John” show Wednesday.

This could give fans an early idea of which Tigers may or may not return to Hardaway’s club next season.

Hunter, Rogers, Jourdain and Cisse have all exhausted their eligibility and won’t be back. Dainja currently doesn’t have any eligibility remaining either, but is widely expected to pursue a waiver from the NCAA to play next year, a source tells Bluff City Media. There’s little indication of whether it’d be approved, though.

Carter spent the 2022-23 season at Georgia Highlands College, which likely gives him an extra year of eligibility. The NCAA introduced a blanket waiver in December that extends an additional year in 2025-26 to athletes who previously “competed at a non-NCAA school for one or more years” and otherwise would have exhausted their NCAA eligibility following the 2024-25 campaign.

Harris started his college career at Georgetown in 2020-21, a year that didn’t count against any athlete’s eligibility due to the COVID-19 pandemic. He then redshirted 2022-23 after transferring to Virginia midseason. This means he used his third year of eligibility to play for Memphis in 2024-25, providing him a fourth and final year to return in 2025-26.

Here’s what to expect in No. 16 Memphis’ second meeting with USF this season.

Hardaway gives injury update on Harris

The 6-foot midseason transfer went down less than a minute into his outing at UTSA on Tuesday.

Harris twisted his left ankle whilst being fouled on a drive by Marcus Millender, grimacing in pain and reaching towards the ligament upon falling down. He couldn’t put any weight on his foot while being helped off the floor by Memphis staffers at the 15:17 mark in the first half, and ultimately didn’t return to the game.

Hardaway currently doesn’t know exactly how long Memphis’ backup point guard will be out moving forward, but don’t expect him to play against South Florida.

“It doesn’t seem like it’s gonna be a day or two. It’s gonna be a little longer than that,” Hardaway said during his weekly radio show Wednesday.

Jourdain’s offense is on the upswing

The 6-foot-7 forward (6.9 points, 5.5 rebounds and 1.1 blocks per game) usually does a bit more of the dirty work, but has now scored double-digit points in four of his last seven games.

That includes a 19-point outing on 70% shooting against Rice on Feb. 26, which is best scoring output in two seasons as a Tiger. Jourdain also tallied 9 rebounds and 2 blocks in 31 minutes.

Six days later, he dropped an efficient 13 points on 5-for-6 shooting to go with 8 rebounds, 2 blocks and 2 assists at UTSA. Not bad for a guy who reached double figures just four times in Memphis’ first 23 contests.

“That’s just a credit to his hard work. His hard work has been paying off, and then our conversations about where he can get his shots from,” Hardaway said postgame Tuesday. “[UTSA] really disrespected him by not guarding him. We didn’t do a good enough job of getting him the ball (22 turnovers, 12 assists) so he could dominate more. But we’ll do better next time.”

What happened last time?

Memphis made Hardaway’s 150th career win look easy in Tampa last month.

South Florida hung around for as long as it could, trailing by only 6 points with three minutes left in the first half. But the Tigers quickly turned USF’s black-out into a laugher with 12 consecutive points to claim an 18-point advantage.

Memphis then led by as many as 24 before securing an 80-65 victory. Dainja headed the Tigers with 20 points and 7 rebounds on 9-for-13 shooting. PJ Haggerty compiled 18 points, 6 rebounds and 4 assists. Hunter, who returned from a one-game absence, totaled 15 points, 6 rebounds and 2 assists on 3-for-5 perimeter shooting.

Ben Fletcher’s team is 1-4 in its five games since then, though they’ve each finished within 7 or less points. Two of them were Quad 2 losses at UAB and vs. North Texas. Bart Torvik ranks USF No. 225 overall, No. 290 in adjusted offensive efficiency and No. 121 in adjusted defensive efficiency.

Jamille Reynolds (12.9 points, 7.7 rebounds and 1.6 blocks) and Jayden Reid (12.2 points, 3.6 assists and 1.8 steals) remain the Bulls’ two biggest threats. Kobe Knox (10.7 points) and Brandon Stroud (8.6 points and 5.4 rebounds), meanwhile, scored 11 points each during USF’s first matchup with the Tigers.

The Prediction

Memphis outpaces South Florida again.

The Tigers have their first regular-season conference championship since 2012-13, and they almost certainly don’t want to share it. The home team won’t falter on Senior Day.

Expect Memphis to officially seal its outright title.