What to expect in No. 23 Memphis’ penultimate non-conference game against Vanderbilt, plus a game prediction

This year’s non-conference season has felt like a dream for Memphis basketball.

Throughout November and December, the No. 23-ranked Tigers (9-2) have created magic the 901 hasn’t seen since—yes—the famed 2007-08 season. Memphis owns five wins over top-55 KenPom opponents and has beaten four teams ranked in the AP Top 25 prior to tip-off. Bracketologists Jerry Palm (CBS) and Joe Lunardi (ESPN) are already projecting Memphis as a No. 4 and 5 seed respectively for the 2024 NCAA Tournament.

The Tigers’ last three games are what’s turned this season into a true renaissance for the program. Dec. 10’s win at Texas A&M (ranked No. 21 in the AP poll before tip-off) was an emphatic statement after Memphis bounced back from a two-game skid. Penny Hardaway’s team then returned to FedExForum for the first time since Nov. 17 last Saturday, and beat No. 18 Clemson in a near-sellout thriller.

Tuesday’s victory over No. 22 Virginia—FedExForum’s first top-25 matchup since 2014—was far from a thriller. It was instead the climax of what’s been a brutal, but successful gauntlet for Memphis, which won the game 77-54. The Tigers put the entire country on notice by doing something many thought improbable: taking Tony Bennett’s Cavaliers out of their rhythm. But Memphis achieved more than simply keeping UVA off-balance—it sped Virginia up and ran the Cavaliers off the floor in the second half.

The good news now is Memphis is more or less finished with the hard part of its non-conference slate. The bad news—or at least not-as-good news—is the Tigers will face a different kind of challenge when they take on Vanderbilt this afternoon (3 p.m., CBS) as a 16.5-point favorite. The Commodores (4-7) are ranked No. 234 in KenPom and No. 294 in the NCAA’s NET rankings. They also have yet to defeat any non-buy game opponents and are losers of three straight contests. Hardaway, however, knows Memphis cannot afford to overlook Jerry Stackhouse’s team.

“They are very talented, and they’re looking for this game to be their turnaround game,” he said Thursday. “We can’t get complacent or take anybody for granted because we still have so much to work for. We’re still the hunters. And when you’re still a hunter, you can’t ever let up.”

Here’s what to expect in the Tigers’ final game before Christmas.

Nae’Qwan Tomlin will play.

The Kansas State transfer will be available for the first time since committing to Memphis last week, sources confirmed to Bluff City Media Friday.

Tomlin had a productive year in Jerome Tang’s program last season. The 23-year-old averaged 10.4 points and 5.9 rebounds per game for the Wildcats while shooting 50% from the field in 2022-23. He was also a key contributor in Kansas State’s run to the Elite Eight, averaging 12.5 points, 5 rebounds and 2 blocks in last season’s NCAA Tournament. A graduate transfer, Tomlin started all 36 games for the Wildcats last year.

He was dismissed from the team by KSU’s administration earlier this month, however, and subsequently entered the transfer portal. Tomlin had previously been suspended since late October, when he got arrested after a physical altercation at a sports bar in Manhattan, Kansas. The 6-foot-10 center was later granted diversion in the case, per The Topeka Capital-Journal.

He’s now immediately eligible to play for Memphis at any point since he never suited up for Kansas State this season. That immediately eligibility officially kicked in once KSU processed his graduation. And given Tomlin’s talent, experience and ability, it’s obvious as to why Hardaway wants the Harlem, New York native to play as soon as possible.

“He can guard 1 through 5. He’s a rim protector. He’s an unbelievable rebounder,” Hardaway said Tuesday. “He’s a playmaker. He’s a rim-runner. He gets out and he flies. He can make plays and he can shoot. So, for me, you just put him out there and let him get his feet wet and we’ll just work around him…I think his natural, God-given talent will just take over in areas…If he’s eligible to play, he’s gonna play in the Vanderbilt game for sure.”

But just because Hardaway will play him as soon as possible doesn’t mean he’ll use him as much as possible, at least not immediately.

“[Just] because he plays doesn’t mean he has to play 20-30 minutes…He hasn’t played a game in a while, and I’m gonna go off his flow. I’m not rushing him out there,” Hardaway said. “If he says he’s not ready yet Saturday, he won’t play Saturday. If he’s like ‘give me another week,’ we’ll give him another week. This isn’t about rushing him back.”

Jaykwon Walton might not play.

The Wichita State transfer quietly left the court in the midst of Memphis’ win over Virginia Tuesday.

Walton, who averages 9 points and 4 rebounds per game on 37% shooting, showed up to an appearance at Sherwood Middle School in a walking boot the next morning, and then limped into Thursday’s Tiger Toy Drive at McFarland Community Center. The 6-foot-7 wing’s status for Saturday is very much up in the air, according to Hardaway.

“Jaykwon hurt his foot in the [Virginia] game. He said a guy went under him in his landing area,” Hardaway said Thursday. “He’s been limping all day. I’m hoping he’ll get better by Saturday. If he’s not able to go, then he won’t go. Right now—the way he’s walking—I’d say he’s out. But that doesn’t mean he won’t be in by Saturday.”

What Vanderbilt brings to the table

Vanderbilt, at least on paper, is easily the weakest foe Memphis has played since its meeting with Alabama State last month. But the Commodores still have some talent.

Senior Tyrin Lawrence has seen a slight drop in his statistics from last season. The 6-foot-4 guard, who tested both the transfer portal and NBA Draft waters last off-season, is averaging 12 points, 4.4 rebounds and 2 steals per game on just 36.8% shooting. He put up 13 per contest last season while shooting 50% from the field. Lawrence scored 21 points in a loss to North Carolina State, which was actually his season debut after missing Vandy’s first four outings of the year.

Ezra Manjon has started his second year with the program as the Commodores’ lead guard. The 6-foot senior is averaging 15 points, 3.8 assists and 3.4 rebounds per game while shooting 44.4% on his field goal attempts. Manjon also racks up a steal per contest.

Notre Dame transfer Ven-Allen Lubin is another statistical standout. The 6-foot-8 forward puts up 13 points and 6 rebounds per game on a 52.8% shooting clip. Lubin was Vanderbilt’s leading scorer before suffering a groin injury that caused him to miss Tuesday’s 63-62 loss to Western Carolina. This is the sophomore’s second time injuring his groin after missing four games with a strain earlier this year. His status against Memphis is unknown.

Other players to watch for are 6-foot-6 guard Evan Taylor (10 points and 3.7 rebounds per game), 6-foot-6 guard Jason Rivera-Torres (7 points and 3 rebounds per game), 6-foot-8 forward Tasos Kamateros (6.3 points per game and Athens, Greece native) and 6-foot-2 guard Paul Lewis (5 points and 2.3 assists per game). Forward Colin Smith is out for the season with an Achilles injury and Center Lee Dort is suspended indefinitely after being arrested for aggravated assault.

Vanderbilt collectively scores 68 points per game while shooting 39.6% from the field and 28.5% from 3-point range, while its opponents average 72 points and shoot 40.5% from the perimeter. The Commodores also force (and give up) 11 turnovers and rack up 36.5 rebounds per game. Vandy ranks No. 248 in offensive efficiency and No. 226 in defensive efficiency.

The Prediction

Memphis rolls to victory.

The Tigers simply have no business losing this game, and it’d be a big shock if they did. Tomlin’s debut should be the only major story here.

Expect Memphis to take care of business inside FedExForum.