What to expect when Memphis basketball hosts Charlotte, plus a game prediction

The Tigers’ collapse is officially complete.

Memphis—once 15-2 and No. 10 in the Associated Press Top 25—has lost six of its last nine games, and will now have to win next month’s American Athletic Conference tournament in Fort Worth, Texas to advance to its third consecutive March Madness.

It all started with a four-game losing streak to close out January, including a Quad 4 loss to Rice on Jan. 31. The Tigers later bounced back with three straight victories to start February, however, which kept their at-large bid hopes alive for the time being.

But those said hopes are now all but dead after what transpired in the Lone Star State last week. Memphis first allowed 16 3-pointers in a 10-point defeat at North Texas last Thursday, and then got blown out by 26 points on Sunday against an SMU team it had already beaten earlier this season. The latter performance was particularly indicative on how bad it’s gone down the stretch for the Tigers, who mostly looked checked out and defeated for nearly the entire contest.

Point guard Jahvon Quinerly even sat out a defensive sequence—after committing a turnover, mind you—to instead tie his shoes in the backcourt as his teammates were defending a 5-on-4 fastbreak with six and a half minutes to go in the first half. SMU converted a second-chance layup to make the score 36-20 during that possession.

Simply put, it was a complete embarrassment for Penny Hardaway’s team. Not even David Jones’ 33 points were enough to help the Tigers remain competitive.

“F****** losing like this—this is terrible, man. This is not competing at all. I don’t know what’s going on,” Hardaway said postgame. “I just don’t understand why [we’re] not competing. Every game we’re playing is for our life, to make it to the NCAA Tournament.”

Memphis (18-8, 7-6 AAC) can’t put together an NCAA Tournament resume anymore, but it can still build momentum towards the conference tournament. The Tigers—currently No. 7 in the league—need to finish the regular season in the top-4 to receive a double-bye to the tournament’s quarterfinals. If they fail, they’ll have to win four games in four days inside Dickies Arena to save their season.

Hardaway’s club will return to FedExForum to host 2nd-place Charlotte (17-8, 11-2 AAC) on Wednesday night (7 p.m., ESPN+). A win can help Memphis jump up to 6th-place in the league if North Texas loses to UTSA on Saturday, while a loss drops the Tigers to 8th-place in the standings.

Here’s what to expect when Memphis takes on the 49ers.

‘There’s gonna be some feelings hurt.’

Memphis basketball fans aren’t the only people sick and tired of seeing the Tigers’ lackadaisical efforts in the second half of the season. Hardaway is pretty annoyed too.

The sixth-year coach—though he didn’t name any names—indicated to reporters that some players had already given up on the team’s faltering season. He’s always been more of a player’s coach throughout his drama-filled tenure. But he’s seemingly reached his breaking point after his club showed no fight whatsoever against SMU—even though Hardaway publicly begged for it after Thursday’s loss to North Texas.

“Not all guys [have quit]. I’m not trying to do that to all the guys. It seems like some have, though,” he said. “We haven’t had a leader emerge yet because everyone’s scared to hurt each other’s feelings. But I think after today, there’s gonna be some feelings hurt.”

Hardaway already gave an idea of what he meant by that during Sunday’s blowout. Walk-on Joe Cooper saw his first action of the season at the 11:16 mark in the second half. The 6-foot-1 guard recorded 2 assists and 2 steals in 10 minutes. Starter Jaykwon Walton, meanwhile, played just 11 minutes and scored zero points against the Mustangs.

At this point, with the Tigers’ season hanging on for dear life, Hardaway says he no longer cares about the name on one’s back or anyone’s NIL check. He’ll instead use whatever players he thinks are still fighting for him and his team.

“If the guys on the floor on Wednesday, those are the guys that are bought in,” Hardaway said during his weekly radio show Monday.

What Charlotte brings to the table

It’s been a great season for first-year head coach Aaron Fearne, who recently had the interim tag removed from his title on Feb. 12. The 49ers went just 6-6 in their non-conference schedule, but have won 11 of their last 13 games since starting AAC play. Charlotte—winner of its last three outings—is currently ranked No. 94 in the NCAA NET rankings and No. 99 in KenPom.

Lu’Cye Patterson is having his best campaign yet during his second season in Charlotte. The 6-foot-2 guard is averaging 14.8 points, 3.6 rebounds and 2.4 assists while shooting 44.1% from the field and 34.4% from 3-point range. He’s also nabbing a steal per contest. Patterson has scored double-figure points in nine straight games.

Former Virginia Cavalier Igor Milicic Jr. is the 49ers’ top big man. The 6-foot-10 forward currently puts up 12.8 points and 8.6 rebounds per game while shooting 49.3% on his field goal attempts and 36.9% on his 3-point tries. He also averages 1.3 blocks. The Croatian junior has recorded nine double-doubles this season, the latest one coming during Sunday’s win over Wichita State when he compiled 12 points and 14 rebounds.

Other players to watch for are 6-foot-11 center Dishon Jackson (11.8 points, 5.6 rebounds and a block per game), 6-foot-3 guard Nik Graves (10.3 points, 3.4 rebounds, 3 assists and a steal per game), 6-foot-6 guard Jackson Threadgill (5.8 points and 2.4 rebounds per game) and 6-foot-7 forward Robert Braswell IV (6.2 points per game on 36.2% perimeter shooting).

Charlotte scores 69.8 points per game while shooting 45.8% from the field and 32% from 3-point range. It also averages 33.1 rebounds and 13.3 assists, and it commits just 9.5 turnovers per contest. Defensively, it racks up 10.1 forced turnovers, 5.8 steals and 3.8 blocks. The 49ers are slotted at No. 103 in adjusted offensive efficiency and No. 101 in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom.

The Prediction

Memphis squeezes out a close victory.

The Tigers are certainly at rock bottom right now, but a return to FedExForum should provide a slight boost for Hardaway’s team. Charlotte has struggled mightily on the road this season, and owns no impressive win besides a two-point home victory over Florida Atlantic last month.

Fearne’s team is also not particularly great on either end of the floor, and ranks No. 356 in tempo according to KenPom. That doesn’t bode well when facing a Memphis team ranked No. 19 in that same metric.

Expect the U of M to bounce back by the skin of its teeth.