What to expect when Memphis basketball hosts Missouri, plus a game prediction

It’s finally time for Memphis basketball to remove its training wheels.

Penny Hardaway’s Tigers will play their first meaningful game since March when they host Missouri inside FedExForum Monday (7 p.m., ESPN+) to open the regular season.

Memphis lost two exhibitions to No. 9 North Carolina and No. 2 Alabama last month, but it showed lots of promise in both defeats. The Tigers displayed infectious defensive energy, explosive late offense (52.3% second-half shooting in both games) and relentless activity on the boards (33 combined offensive rebounds).

October certainly could’ve gone better for Hardaway’s club. It took two free shots at top-10 opponents, and missed both of them. It was picked to second in an extremely weak American Athletic Conference (AAC) despite being the highest-ranked AAC program in both KenPom and barttorvik.com.

It even dealt with off-the-court drama in the form of SMU transfer Tyreek Smith, who left the team on Oct. 18 and returned on Oct. 22.

But the Tigers believe all these setbacks will pay off in the long run, including on Monday.

“I feel like we’re just as good as these teams, if not better,” center Dain Dainja said after the Alabama loss on Oct. 28. “We just gotta tighten up on the little things. The way we practice is a big thing. We gotta practice harder. You guys have seen how we can play in the second half.

”If we just start like that and play like that the whole game, we’re just as good as anybody in the country.”

Here’s what to expect when Memphis takes on Missouri.

Can PJ Haggerty continue his rise to stardom?

Haggerty emerged as Memphis’ biggest standout during the preseason.

The 6-foot-3 guard unleashed on a scoring rampage on UNC and Alabama, scoring 56 total points in the two games. Most of his production came in crunch time too.

Fifteen of his 24 points against the Tar Heels came in the second half, and he also shot 6-for-7 from the field during the final 20 minutes of Memphis’ 84-76 loss.

The Tulsa transfer took things to another level in the Alabama game, where Memphis shot a porous 27.8% from the field in the opening period and trailed by as many as 21 points.

Haggerty exploded out of halftime to help the Tigers outpace the Crimson Tide 59-47 in the closing period. He ultimately scored 28 points in the second half alone, finishing with a game-high 32 on 9-for-22 (8-for-14 in the second half) shooting.

Memphis still lost the contest 96-88, but it may have found its next superstar in the process.

”I’ve seen it up close and personal when he played for Tulsa last year, so I know how dynamic he is,” Hardaway said on Oct. 28. “I think as the moment gets bigger, he goes harder. He becomes the guy, and I think these guys understand that…That’s just who he is.”

The seventh-year coach reiterated his belief in Haggerty to reporters Thursday, though he wants other stars like Dainja, Tyrese Hunter and Colby Rogers to get their shots at the crown too.

”He’s kinda putting himself in a position to say, ‘Hey, I’m the guy that you can count on,’” Hardaway said. “In our system, there’s really not one primary ballhandler. But he is the guy. He’s proven himself in the first two games to have the ball in his hands when we need a basket or a decision. [But] everyone else is gonna have plenty of opportunities as well.”

Will Memphis improve its perimeter shooting?

The Tigers struggled mightily from beyond the arc throughout exhibition play.

They made just six combined 3-pointers against North Carolina and Alabama, shooting 16.2% from deep in both contests. Four players—Rogers, Haggerty, Hunter and PJ Carter—accounted for those makes.

Hardaway said after the Alabama game that it’s “too early” to make any judgments about Memphis’ perimeter shooting, but he’s not dismissing the issue either.

”You can say it’s a concern,” he said Thursday. “As long as we take good shots and we miss good shots, we feel like those will drop. We just gotta stay away from what we would call, ‘bronze-level shots,’ where they’re not good looks. They’re one dribble and a shot, two dribbles and a shot, taking a shot too early in the shot clock. That’s not favorable for us

”We shoot more than anybody. I talk about that every year. I’m really big on shooting. And when you get into these arenas and these other places, you just gotta lock in and knock down your shots.”

Rogers, a Wichita State transfer and a career 39.2% 3-pointer shooter, isn’t overly worried about the Tigers’ woes from deep just yet.

”I think it’s just shots not falling. I don’t really look too much into it…It’s part of the game,” he said. “Granted, we do kinda [need to] find some easier looks offensively. But I think that’ll come in due time.”

What Missouri brings to the table

Dennis Gates, who’ll coach his third campaign this year, heavily revamped Mizzou’s roster after it didn’t win a single SEC game last season.

His offseason moves paid off, at least preseason projection-wise. Missouri is ranked No. 52 in KenPom and No. 64 on barttorvik.com. Memphis, meanwhile, is tabbed at No. 42 and 32 respectively in both computers.

Duke transfer Mark Mitchell is Gates’ biggest acquisition for 2024-25. The 6-foot-9 junior averaged 11.6 points and 6 rebounds on 54% shooting for the Blue Devils last year. Mitchell has made 67 career starts and won four NCAA Tournament games in two seasons.

Former Iowa guard Tony Perkins is another prized possession from the transfer portal. The 6-foot-4 senior put up 14 points, 4.6 assists, 4.4 rebounds and 1.6 steals per game while shooting 43.2% from the field last season. Perkins has started 66 games in the past two years.

Mid-major transfers Marques Warrick (Northern Kentucky) and Jacob Crews (UT-Martin) could also make big impacts for Gates’ club.

Warrick, a 6-foot-3 guard, scored 19.9 points per contest last year on 42.5% shooting. His 3-point percentage, however, dropped from 38.2% (6.5 attempts) in 2023 to 29.8% (6.8 attempts) in 2024.

Crews, a 6-foot-8 senior, averaged 19.1 points and 8.2 rebounds while shooting 48.5% overall and 41.4% from 3-point range. He played sparingly at North Florida for two seasons before starring at UT-Martin last year.

Senior guards Tamar Bates and Caleb Grill are Missouri’s biggest returners. Bates, who scored 13.5 points per contest last season, recorded just 6 during Mizzou’s home meeting with Memphis in November 2023. Grill, meanwhile, averaged 8.4 points and 5.8 rebounds in nine games before suffering a season-ending wrist injury.

Gates also welcomes the nation’s No. 13 high school recruiting class, according to 247Sports, featuring 4-star freshmen Annor Boateng, Peyton Marshall, Marcus Allen and Trent Burns.

The Prediction

Memphis earns a big season-opening victory.

Hardaway and Co. are now hardened by their preseason tilts. Haggerty and Hunter are also likely enough to outclass Missouri’s newfound talent in the backcourt, especially since Mizzou doesn’t present a real answer for the former’s high-octane scoring.

Expect a competitive battle that leans towards the home team down the stretch.