What to expect when No. 14 Memphis visits South Florida, plus a game prediction

Dain Dainja is happy that No. 14 Memphis got its revenge on Temple, but he’s just as ready to keep chugging along.

“Now, it’s next game,” he said Sunday.

The Tigers (20-4, 10-1 AAC) visit South Florida (12-12, 5-6 AAC) inside the Yuengling Center on Thursday (8 p.m., ESPN2). This is Memphis’ first trip to Tampa since Feb. 8, 2023, when it defeated the Bulls 99-81. USF won last season’s only meeting in Memphis despite trailing the Tigers by 20 points in the second half.

The Bulls—No. 198 in the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET)—represent Memphis’ ninth Quad 3 opportunity this season. An upset would likely damage the Tigers’ NCAA Tournament seeding, especially since they’ve already lost two Quad 3 games (vs. Arkansas State and at Temple).

CBS Sports’ Jerry Palm and ESPN’s Joe Lunardi both forecast Memphis as a top-5 seed in their latest bracketologies, largely thanks to the Tigers’ 10 combined wins in Quads 1 and 2. Advanced metrics like Bart Torvik, however, currently predict that Memphis will receive a No. 10 seed come March—though that projection also comes with two losses in its final seven regular season games.

Here’s what to expect when Penny Hardaway’s club faces USF for the first time this year.

Memphis calls Tyrese Hunter a game-time decision

Hunter never missed a game in his college career until Sunday, and his status for Thursday is also unclear.

The 6-foot guard (knee) won’t practice this week and is considered a game-time decision, a Memphis spokesperson told Bluff City Media on Tuesday.

Hunter’s ailment has been a constant issue all season, but it didn’t affect his availability before the Tigers’ rematch with Temple. Dante Harris started in his place after he was ruled out 20 minutes prior to tipoff.

Hunter averages 14.5 points, 3.7 rebounds, 3.3 assists and 1.6 steals while shooting 43.8% from the field and 41.7% at the 3-point line.

“It’s just difficult because when you’re not yourself, you don’t really wanna chance it,” Hardaway said during his weekly radio show Monday. “If you go out there and try to play, you know, not feeling well, you can hurt something else or injure that knee even more. You don’t wanna do that. He made the right decision.”

Hardaway has ‘no worries’ if Harris starts again

Harris, a midseason transfer, filled in nicely for Hunter against Temple.

The 6-foot redshirt senior was a low-maintenance reserve in his first nine appearances as a Tiger, logging just 11 minutes per game in that span. But he turned things up a gear and then some when Hardaway told him he’d be starting on short notice.

Harris totaled 14 points, 3 rebounds and 2 steals on 6-for-8 shooting in 29 minutes. He was Memphis’ only starter that didn’t commit a turnover. The Tigers finished plus-6 with Harris on the floor vs. the Owls.

Hardaway is confident the 2021 Big East Tournament’s Most Outstanding Player can garner similar production if Hunter sits out again at South Florida.

“That’s why you want your bench to be strong,” Hardaway said. “You can rest Tyrese and not really stress. I had no worries yesterday with Dante coming in and starting, because he’s a veteran, he understands how to play and the rest of the team rallied around him.

“If you’re gonna miss a game, miss it now. Don’t miss it later.”

What South Florida brings to the table

USF is still reeling from Amir Abdur-Rahim’s tragic passing under interim coach Ben Fletcher. Its American Athletic Conference (AAC) championship-level magic is seemingly gone too with leading scorers Chris Youngblood (Alabama), Selton Miguel (Maryland) and Kasean Pryor (Louisville) all defecting to the transfer portal last offseason.

The Bulls are No. 185 in Bart Torvik and No. 200 in KenPom with nine combined losses to Quad 3 and 4 opponents. KenPom also ranks USF No. 200 in adjusted offensive efficiency and No. 199 in adjusted defensive efficiency.

Jayden Reid is now South Florida’s lead guard after making the AAC All-Freshman Team last season. The 5-foot-10 sophomore averages 12.1 points, 3.7 assists, 2.6 rebounds and 1.6 steals while shooting 38.7% overall and 35.9% from 3-point range. Reid scored a career-high 26 points against UAB on Jan. 15.

Cincinnati transfer Jamille Reynolds replaces Pryor as USF’s top big man. The 6-foot-11 forward puts up 12.7 points, 7.6 rebounds and 1.6 blocks per game on 52.5% shooting. Reynolds, who’s also played for UCF and Temple, boasts six double-doubles this season.

Kobe Knox, a Tampa native, has started 47 games for his hometown school. The 6-foot-5 guard averages 11.1 points and 2.7 rebounds while shooting 48.9% on field goals and 36.1% on 3-pointers. Knox missed Sunday’s 75-70 loss to Wichita State with an ankle injury.

Other players to watch for are 6-foot-6 guard Brandon Stroud (8.2 points, 4.7 rebounds and 1.3 steals), 6-foot-5 guard Jimmie Williams (7.8 points, 3.1 rebounds and 1.5 steals) and 6-foot-2 guard CJ Brown (7.3 points, 2.4 rebounds, 2.4 assists and 1.4 steals).

The Prediction

Memphis wins its eighth consecutive game.

USF’s saving grace is its ability to guard the 3-point line. The Bulls have the AAC’s No. 3 perimeter defense (31.4%), which might hinder a Tigers team that tops the country in 3-point shooting percentage (40.3%). That likely won’t be enough, though.

Expect Memphis to prevail in Tampa—with or without Hunter.